Currency Forecast

Welcome to the asylum, er, newsletter. This week’s menu:

In the heart of Wall Street, where numbers dance and fortunes turn, Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) has unfurled its latest creation: the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT). A product, they say, that mirrors the whims of Bitcoin, yet keeps its hands clean, never touching the asset itself. It trades now, on NYSE Arca, a regulated haven for those who fear the wild west of crypto.

The ‘restructuring’ plan, which could happen as soon as this month, involves folding Zodia’s crypto custody business into one of the bank’s existing divisions. Because nothing says “innovation” like a good old-fashioned merger.

But hold your space bucks, because the derivatives data on Binance is telling a story that’s about as optimistic as a Vogon reading poetry. According to a CryptoQuant report, XRP’s leverage structure is more lopsided than a three-legged stool at a galactic cocktail party. Over the past 30 days, long position liquidations have hit $39.8 million-roughly the cost of a slightly used Heart of Gold spaceship-while short position liquidations only managed $19.7 million. The market, it seems, is slapping buyers twice as hard as sellers, which is about as fair as a game of cricket with a Vogsphere team.

Our British hero, Adam Back, has raised his eyebrows in scandalous disbelief at claims he might be the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto, after the New York Times bestowed upon him the dubious honor of “most likely suspect.”

Still, SHIB drifts within the larger, relentless river of decline. Its attempts at stability, a valiant but feeble protest, are no more than ephemeral flickers. Prices linger below the august moving averages, all sloping downward as though bowing to the persistent hand of bearish rule. What might appear as a flirtation with recovery is, in truth, nothing but a transient pause, a polite nod before the inevitable continuation of the downward march.

This suggests current sales would reach around $44 billion over a year, which is about a third of the expected sales for 2025, as detailed in a report released last week.

Coinbase is accelerating its global expansion with a decisive entry into Australia’s regulated financial sector. The move marks a bold, and perhaps terminally cheerful, push beyond crypto trading into traditional financial services. New regulatory approval positions the exchange to contend with venerable institutions while wearing a very modern suit.

In a rather exhilarating chat on Squawk on the Street (which, let’s be honest, sounds like the sort of show where stockbrokers go to air their latest fever dreams), the bank’s chief multi-asset strategist, Max Kettner, casually mentioned that the S&P 500’s recent tumble to a modest 6,343 could, just could, be the bottom we’ve all been waiting for. Oh, how thrilling.

The Financial Times reports that Iran may start accepting Bitcoin as payment for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This important waterway carries about 20% of the world’s oil and gas. The proposed fee would be $1 for each barrel of oil carried. For a large oil tanker carrying two million barrels, this could mean a toll of up to $2 million per trip.