As an analyst, I’ve been watching the markets closely, and while global stocks are currently hitting record highs, Bitcoin is significantly lagging behind. It’s trading almost 42% below its all-time peak, which is a pretty substantial difference.
This division has left cryptocurrency investors confused and seeking clarity, particularly because the market often treats crypto and stocks as equally risky investments.
Diverging Drivers Between Equities and Bitcoin
XWIN Japan’s researchers explain the difference is straightforward: stocks and Bitcoin operate using fundamentally different principles.
Stock market gains are currently being driven by increased profits related to artificial intelligence, investments in companies like Nvidia, and businesses repurchasing their own shares. Additionally, consistent money flowing into exchange-traded funds is contributing. This means investors are seeing genuine and clear profit growth.
Unlike investments that generate income, Bitcoin’s price relies solely on new money coming into the market. This makes it more vulnerable to sudden changes in buying and selling activity.
According to XWIN’s analysis, we’re not seeing the expected investment coming into the market. Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows in the latter half of May, losing over $3.5 billion since May 15th, according to SoSoValue. The largest drops happened on May 18th ($648.64 million) and May 27th ($733.43 million). There hasn’t been a day with net inflows since May 14th, when $131.31 million came in.
XWIN analysts noted that during previous periods of strong growth for Bitcoin, increasing user activity usually supported the rising price. However, they’re now observing a situation where the price is high, but fewer people are actively using Bitcoin. They believe this difference in participation is crucial.
They explained that stock prices go up when companies make profits. Bitcoin’s price, on the other hand, increases when more money enters the market and more people start using it.
Because of these factors, investors are putting more money into stocks, believing they offer better opportunities for profit, and reducing their investments in assets like Bitcoin that rely on quick buying and selling.
The Japanese and Korean stock markets have seen significant gains recently. Japan’s Nikkei index surpassed 66,500 on May 29th – a first – and Japanese stocks have gained around $3.2 trillion this year. Similarly, Korea’s KOSPI reached a record high, increasing its market value by 150 trillion won. Analyst Ash Crypto highlighted these milestones earlier today.
What Bitcoin Needs
Despite positive performance in the Nikkei and KOSPI stock markets, Bitcoin’s price dropped yesterday to around $72,600, according to CoinGecko. Experts believe this decline may have been triggered by renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and also by a large sale of $1.3 billion worth of shares in the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $73,000 but has recovered slightly. However, this is a modest gain, as it traded near $78,000 just last week. Currently, the price is down over 4% in the last month and almost 32% compared to this time last year.
From my perspective as an analyst at XWIN, we’re looking for a few key things to drive a Bitcoin recovery. We need to see more money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, increased activity on the blockchain itself, and an improvement in the Coinbase Premium. A weakening dollar would also likely contribute to a more lasting positive trend for the cryptocurrency.
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2026-05-29 21:18