When Bitcoin Plays Hard to Get: A Tale of Inflation and Memecoins

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Markets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin, that fickle mistress, briefly flirted with the $67,000 mark only to be rebuffed, much like a suitor at a high-society ball. Despite this drama, it remains on track for a lamentable fourth consecutive weekly decline-truly a tragic love story.
  • The derivatives market, however, clings to a semblance of optimism, as if it were the last bottle of champagne at a rather dreary gathering. With cleaned-up leverage and positive funding rates, one might be tempted to believe in fairytales, even while traders pay a premium for short-term downside protection, akin to buying an umbrella in a drought.
  • In a curious turn of events, Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s PUMP token has gallivanted up over 5%, as if it were a celebrity making a triumphant return after a scandalous hiatus-all thanks to its newly minted GitHub-linked fee allocation tools.

As dawn broke on Friday, Bitcoin, in a bold yet futile attempt, tested the illustrious $67,000 threshold before retreating like a bashful debutante. It finds itself about 1% higher since midnight UTC, while ether languishes, rising only half as much-oh, the shame!

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a veritable arbiter of crypto etiquette, remains largely unchanged, eking out a meager 0.7% increase during this tumultuous period.

Though these gains suggest a recovery from yesterday’s U.S. trading debacle, where cryptocurrencies plummeted towards last week’s lows, Bitcoin is still on a path of despair-its longest losing streak since mid-November. One might say it’s a classic case of ‘one step forward, two steps back.’

Meanwhile, a noticeable slowdown in trading and fading volatility hangs over the marketplace like a cloud over a picnic, weighing down volumes with the grace of a lead balloon.

Traders gaze longingly at the horizon, anticipating the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print later today, hoping for direction-a higher-than-expected reading could send bond yields and the dollar soaring, adding further pressure on risk assets. Conversely, a more favorable reading might just inspire some reckless risk-taking, much like an overzealous youth at a masquerade ball.

Even so, reaching $85,000 feels like a distant dream, as Deribiti’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Péquignot, remarks-if that price were to materialize, we might finally declare that the largest cryptocurrency’s long-term rally has not been entirely “broken,” much like a heart that still beats despite heartache.

Derivatives

  • The market, in a surprising twist, appears to be rejuvenating, as open interest (OI) has dipped to $15.5 billion-a sign of late-cycle leverage being swept away like confetti after a celebration.
  • Perpetual funding rates have shifted from neutral to positive across all venues, now fluttering between 0% and 8%. This broader optimism is echoed by institutions, as the three-month annualized basis has spiked to just over 3%, signaling the emergence of professional conviction-something akin to finding a rare gem in a pile of ordinary stones.
  • The bitcoin options market is bustling with call volume at a robust 65%, even as the one-week 25-delta skew eases to 17.9%. Despite this “bottom-fishing” activity, the implied volatility (IV) term structure continues to linger in short-term backwardation, confirming that traders are still shelling out a hefty “panic premium” for immediate downside protection-much like paying extra for a seat at the front row of a theatrical performance.
  • Coinglass data reveals $256 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with a rather delightful split of 69-31 between longs and shorts. Bitcoin ($112 million), ether ($52 million), and others ($16 million) lead the pack, reminiscent of a well-organized race.
  • The Binance liquidation heatmap presents $68,800 as a core liquidation level worthy of observation, should prices decide to frolic upwards.

Token Talk

  • PUMP, the token from the enchanting realm of Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, has ascended more than 5% in the last 24 hours-an impressive feat in these trying times.
  • The platform has introduced a new method for token communities to allocate fees directly through its mobile app, incorporating GitHub account integration as if it were the latest fashion trend.
  • This integration offers a simpler approach for creators to distribute automatic payouts generated by a token’s community, promising more social features to come-like a delightful surprise at a dinner party.
  • In practical terms, this means communities can now extend their support to creators on GitHub through a share of the fees generated. To collect these fees, creators must claim them via the platform’s mobile app-a minor inconvenience for such splendid rewards.
  • Pump.fun was the mastermind behind a spectacular memecoin trading frenzy early last year, when its monthly trading volume soared past $11 billion. Alas, the excitement has since dwindled to a mere $1 billion last month, according to DeFiLlama data. Truly, a tale of glory turned to whispers.

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2026-02-13 15:24