Wall Street’s Wild Guess: Rate Cuts, Crypto Soars, and the Government’s Grand Show

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Imagine, dear reader, an American government that insists on playing hide-and-seek with its economic data-day 23 of the great blackout, no September jobs report, no inflation figures, not even a whisper about initial jobless claims. It’s almost as if the nation’s finances have decided to go on vacation without telling us. 😅

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, that venerable arbiter of Stone Age wisdom, has apparently misplaced access to crucial private employment data from ADP, which covers a hearty 20% of private workers. Reporting from the esteemed WSJ and Kobeissi Letter suggests that the Fed is feeling quite dovish-possibly more than usual-urging rate cuts while the government’s shutdown drags on, like a bad soap opera.

“The Fed must lean even more dovish as the government shutdown continues, and they must cut rates,” it whispers before adding with an almost mischievous grin, “In fact, odds of a 50 basis point rate cut by year-end are surging.”

Crypto: The Can-Can with Federal Indecision

Why does the Fed keep slicing rates? Simple: they’re chicken enough to fear they’re about to miss the boat entirely-so they slash and hope for the best, all while markets await their next move like a cat waits for the mouse. The CME futures are nearly certain-a stunning 96.7%-that a 25 basis point cut will transpire come October 29, with similar odds for more in December and even January.

As interest on savings and bonds dips, investors turn their wary eyes toward crypto, the digital wild west-risky, yes, but offering greener pastures than the sluggish yield elsewhere. It’s all about liquidity, darling: cheap money circulates faster, and with each rate cut, riskier assets become even more tantalizing.

“Many traders look back at positive Q4 performance, anticipating a repeat,” muses the cryptobirb, “so they buy, and the price goes up. Honestly, this year’s leverage chaos isn’t about to cancel the year-end rally.”

Economist Raoul Pal chuckles at the government’s antics, noting that the shutdown has temporarily stalled the draining of the Treasury General Account and the Reverse Repo Facility, which normally suck liquidity out of the system like a giant financial vacuum. Now, more money is floating around-somewhat sloppy, perhaps-making crypto look like the shiny needle in the haystack.

“This too shall pass,” Raoul assures, probably while sipping a martini and pondering the cosmic joke of it all. “If you don’t understand, ask @grok or the Raoulbot on @RealVision for my views.”

The stalemate continues in Washington, with the Senate unable to muster the votes to end the Government’s grand holiday-twelve times now-leaving investors in limbo and markets largely static. Bitcoin, clinging stubbornly around $108,000, refuses to budge despite the chaos, while Ether struggles to claw its way back above $4,000. Alternates are bleeding, like a bad romance, slowly losing their charm.

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2025-10-23 08:14