Key Takeaways
Will the shutdown affect crypto?
Yes, especially altcoins could be affected more than BTC.
What’s the market outlook for Q4?
Short-term caution could extend into early Q4, but in the mid-term, traders were positive.
Investors are anticipating a U.S. government shutdown starting October 1st. This expectation caused Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as well as U.S. stocks, to reach their lowest points of the week on September 25th.
The likelihood of a government shutdown-meaning Congress can’t agree on how to fund government operations-has risen to 70%, a 10-percentage-point increase.
A Forbes report said it could extend for a week if Congress doesn’t act quickly.
If the forecast is correct, it could make investors more pessimistic and cause significant drops in the price of Bitcoin, Ripple, and other leading cryptocurrencies.
But how are traders positioning themselves for next week and the rest of Q4?
Assessing Options market insights
Bitcoin’s 25-Delta Skew (call-put) dropped by 8% for 1-week (blue) and 1-month (purple) tenors.
This led to more short-term hedging, with investors buying more put options (bets that a price will go down) than call options (bets that a price will go up). Essentially, there was some near-term caution as we approached the fourth quarter.
As an analyst, I’ve been watching the 25 Delta Skew for the three-month tenor, and it’s been surprisingly stable around 8%. Despite all the current economic uncertainty, it hasn’t shown any dramatic swings, which is noteworthy.
In simpler terms, options traders were optimistic about the market’s performance in the near future, specifically during the fourth quarter, as evidenced by increased call option purchases and generally bullish expectations.
Regarding XRP, market feelings were generally neutral or negative, regardless of the timeframe examined. This might be a concern for those trading alternative cryptocurrencies, particularly if Bitcoin’s share of the market increases later this year.
Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market has recently increased by around 4%, reaching 60%. If this continues, it could slow down the growth of other cryptocurrencies (altcoins).
It’s still unclear if the approval of altcoin ETFs in October, which many have been anticipating, will lead to investors selling off their holdings after the news is released.
Even with the recent price decrease, Bitcoin remains in a strong position. Demand from sources like ETF investors and company crypto holdings significantly increased in September and has held steady since, without declining.
If demand increases in the last three months of the year, we could see a significant price recovery. However, if large investors reduce their buying, similar to what happened at the beginning of the year, it could cause the price of Bitcoin to fall.
Both Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies showed some initial hesitation. Looking ahead a few weeks, Bitcoin appears to be in a better position than altcoins. As of right now, Bitcoin is worth around $109,000, and XRP is trading at $2.70.
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2025-09-27 08:18