This Indicator Called Every Bitcoin Bottom Since 2015-Really?

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Markets

What to know:

  • A patient, dusty indicator, born of two venerable lines-the 50- and 100-week moving averages-has, with the stubborn frequency of a parish gossip, coincided with every major market bottom since 2015.
  • That signal remains shy as of April 17, refusing to sing for the bulls.

Behold, dear reader, Bitcoin in the glare of a bustling market and the thunder of daily price swings. There lies a remarkably simple contraption, a two-line clerk in the vast ledger of finance, which has silently pronounced the bottom at every major turning point since 2015. Not once, not twice, but each time-like a stubborn old czar refusing to retire.

To the dismay of the hopeful bulls, this instrument has not yet fired a peal, suggesting the great bear may still be lounging in the hall, and the valiant bounce from 65,000 to 75,000 could be but a temporary gust in the market’s weather vane.

The indicator

This contraption involves two lines upon the price chart. That is the entire incognito: no arcane formulas, no hidden blockchain divinations required.

These two lines represent Bitcoin’s average price over the past 50 and 100 weeks. They are the simplest of moving averages, a shy pair of moral arbiters showing near-term and long-term moods of the market.

Most of the time, the 50-week average hovers above the 100-week line. A natural state for a market creeping upward, as Bitcoin has done for ages, like a cat stalking the sunbeam.

Yet, in moments when fear seizes the street and selling is the only dance, the 50-week line can dip below the 100-week line. This crossing is the bear’s polite knock on the door, signaling that winter may still linger.

There have been three such crossings in Bitcoin’s tale. Each time, the bear’s knock coincided with the bottoming act, marking price floors that refused to be rewritten.

In other words, a contrary little indicator that, in its own smug way, marks bottoms rather than deeper abysses.

Three times, three bottoms

Study the vertical lines on the chart back to 2015. They mark the three bearish crossovers-April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022. Each occurred near the bottoming act, not exactly at the nadir, but within the same neighborhood of despair.

In 2015, BTC was dismissed as a failed experiment. Then the crossing arrived. BTC soared from a mere $200 to nearly $20,000 by late 2017. A similar drama played out after the early 2019 crossover.

The 2022 crypto winter-replete with bankruptcies and scams-shook confidence to its core. The downward mood, however, exhausted itself after the crossover in September. BTC bottomed in the closing months of that year and later swaggered toward a sunlit rally, though not necessarily to the promised land of glory in one leap.

Each ascent outpaced equities and other major asset classes in its own comic fashion, as if the market enjoyed a good punchline.

What is it saying now?

As of April 17, the crossover has not yet occurred.

Bitcoin has tumbled from its October arc of over 126,000 to around 75,000, with a flirtation near 60,000 in February. Consequently, the two averages approach each other, yet the 50-week line remains above the 100-week line.

The takeaway: if history is a cranky old librarian, the broad bear market may still be scribbling its signature, and the recent bounce to 75,000 could be only a fleeting flourish rather than the dawn of a grand bull epoch.

That said, patterns are but patterns-capricious as a village fete and no guarantee of the morrow. If U.S. equities, already wearing extravagant hats of record highs, keep marching, institutions may clutch Bitcoin ETFs tighter, perhaps lifting the price as if by polite sorcery.

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2026-04-17 10:33