The US Inflation Report Delay Could Make Crypto Market Lose Its Mind (or Not)

by

Imagine staring at your screen, eyes wide like you just found out your coffee is decaf, waiting for that blasted US inflation report. It’s like expecting a cake and getting a soggy sock instead. The report, delayed due to the government playing shutdown peekaboo for the 24th day, is finally dropping on Friday. And guess what? It’s predicted to rise past 3% for the first time in 2025-because what’s more fun than inflation numbers that make your wallet cry? 📉💸

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (the folks who decide how miserable your grocery bills are) is finally serving up the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Spoiler: it’s late because the government shut down, the government! They’re busy perfecting the art of disappearing just when you need them most.

Economists, those magic crystal ball changers, say September inflation probably surged 0.4% monthly and 3.1% yearly. So basically, inflation is like that one friend who promises to be “just a little late”-but then it shows up uninvited, carrying baggage, and demanding your respect. 🎉

CPI Might Shake Things Up in the Crypto World

This CPI report is the first big data splash since Uncle Sam decided to take an extended coffee break. Investor Ted Pillows (yes, that’s his real name) told us that if CPI hits 3.1% or more, rate cuts will be harder to come by-like trying to find a clean spoon in the office kitchen. But if it stays at 3% or less, markets might cheer like they just saw a puppy wearing sunglasses. 🐶😎

Analyst “Ash Crypto,” who clearly has a great sense of humor about his alias, predicts bigger than 3.1% is bearish-basically, markets will throw a hissy fit because it’ll be the highest CPI since June 2024. Talk about a throwback! But if we stay around 3.1%, oh goodie, risk-on assets might just bounce back like it’s 1999.

“Rate cuts will happen, and also the MoM increase in CPI will be just 0.1% or 1.2% annualized. This will also boost chances of more rate cuts and will cause liquidity to flow into risk-on assets.”

Meanwhile, Matt Maley from Miller Tabak (sounds like a fancy dinner) says that even though the Fed claims they’re more into jobs than inflation right now, if the CPI surprises big time, it might nudge their calculus. Or they might just shrug and do what they want-because they’re the Fed, not your morning therapist.

“So, it will still have a big impact on the markets if it is indeed out of line with what the consensus is thinking.”

And if you’re worried about inflation chasing the Fed’s rate cuts like a dog after a squirrel-don’t be. Barron’s reports that hotter inflation probably won’t stop the Fed from cutting rates next week. Apparently, they’re more nervous about the labor market, which seems to be auditioning for a slow-motion train wreck. The prediction market gives a 98.3% chance of a rate cut next Wednesday-so grab your popcorn.

But don’t forget: the government shutdown is still throwing a wrench in the works, making the economic forecast as clear as mud right before a storm. December’s meeting could be interesting, if only because no one really knows what’s happening anymore.

Markets Nudging Up Like a Toddler on an Easy Ride

Meanwhile, crypto’s little flame of hope flickered upward-market cap inched up 1.8% in the last 24 hours, hitting $3.8 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) played the hero, hitting over $111,000 Thursday night-only to retreat like it suddenly remembered it had bills to pay, settling around $110,500.

So, get ready for what’s next. Possibly chaos, possibly calm, or maybe just another day of crypto rollercoaster being way more fun than your actual bank account. 🚀🙃

Read More

2025-10-24 05:47