The Great Crypto Drama: US CPI and Japan’s Bond Crisis Rock the Market!

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Ah, the crypto market, forever the delicate flower of financial chaos! Today, it is tossing and turning like a teenager on a rollercoaster after a double shot of espresso. The catalyst? The impending release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, and of course, Japan’s uninvited bond market crisis adding a few more gray hairs to investors’ heads.

Bitcoin (BTC):

$116,748

24h volatility:
4.6%

Market cap:
$2.32 T

Vol. 24h:
$70.83 B

Our dear Bitcoin has been flouncing around after it reached the glorious $123,000 mark on Monday, much like a fashionably late guest who arrives at a party just as everyone’s leaving. The long-term holders? Well, they’ve been cashing out like it’s a clearance sale. Talk about perfect timing… or perhaps a little too perfect?

So, What’s the US CPI Going to Do? Let’s Get Dramatic:

Ah, June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, that beloved tale of inflationary woe, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, sending the annual inflation to a mild 2.7%. Core inflation, however, is expected to rise to 3%, which, let’s be honest, is starting to look a bit like the plot twist of a thriller. Tariff increases on goods are, naturally, playing the villain role here.

But wait—don’t reach for the popcorn just yet! The Federal Reserve, in its infinite wisdom, is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting. Still, whispers in the halls of Washington suggest a possible rate cut in September, and everyone’s holding their breath. It’s the financial equivalent of waiting for a sequel to a movie that may never come.

Meanwhile, former US President Trump, ever the drama king, has called for the immediate resignation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting an unprecedented 300 basis points rate cut. At this point, we can only wonder if Powell’s been binge-watching “Game of Thrones” for strategy inspiration.

Ah, but inflation doesn’t take vacations. Despite US job growth, inflation remains a stubborn party guest who refuses to leave. And if that wasn’t enough, Trump’s tariffs might just be stirring the pot for a while. Who says finance can’t be as unpredictable as reality TV?

The markets, ever the optimists (or pessimists, depending on the day), are pricing in a mere 50 basis point rate cut for 2025. Will Powell be a hero or just a spectator in this financial opera? Your guess is as good as mine.

Meanwhile, In Japan, Things Are Looking… Less Than Ideal:

Now, on to Japan, where the bond market crisis is evolving into something rather Shakespearean. Japanese treasury yields have surged to an all-time high, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching a dramatic 3.20%. Forget about Netflix, this is the kind of suspense people crave!

Since 2019, Japan’s 30-year bonds have lost nearly 45% of their value. Yes, you read that correctly—almost half. This is not the kind of performance review anyone wants to see on their financial report card.

And as if that weren’t enough to make investors’ hearts skip a beat, the 30-year yield has risen by 100 basis points over the past year, causing severe losses across Japan’s financial institutions. Let’s just say, the bond market is taking a dive like it’s the last scene in a horror movie. Anyone have an umbrella?

Over the last year, Japan’s 30Y bond yield has surged 100 basis points.

This created massive unrealized losses for financial institutions.

Unrealized losses on domestic bonds for 4 of Japan’s largest life insurers QUADRUPLED in 12 months, to a record $60 billion in Q1 2025.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 15, 2025

$2,974

24h volatility:
1.7%

Market cap:
$358.77 B

Vol. 24h:
$38.79 B

Solana (SOL):

$159.1

24h volatility:
4.3%

Market cap:
$85.18 B

Vol. 24h:
$10.65 B

XRP:

$2.84

24h volatility:
3.4%

Market cap:
$167.61 B

Vol. 24h:
$11.40 B

Dogecoin (DOGE):

$0.19

24h volatility:
7.7%

Market cap:
$28.62 B

Vol. 24h:
$7.18 B

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2025-07-15 17:27