Ah, the morning of February 18, 2026! Like a somber cloud hanging over our collective consciousness, we find ourselves burdened with the weight of our own extravagant dreams. XRP, that notorious trickster of the crypto realm, now finds itself precariously testing its 200-week moving average-an ethereal line in the sand that separates triumph from tragedy. Meanwhile, altcoins, those capricious little rascals, are throwing a five-year sell-off party, and oh, what a dismal gathering it is!
Bitcoin, that shimmering beacon of hope, lingers in the $60,000-$69,000 range-a mere shadow of its former self after the dizzying heights of October 2025. XRP, ever the stalwart defender, clings to a structural level that has historically marked the turning tides of fortune. Yet, as the data from CryptoQuant reveals, a staggering $209 billion has evaporated into thin air across altcoins within a mere 13 months. One must wonder, where have all the buyers gone? Off to chase rainbows, perhaps?
TL;DR
Saylor: ‘We Are in Crypto Winter’
- XRP valiantly holds its ground near the $1.40-$1.50 zone, like a knight defending a castle under siege.
- Altcoins show a disheartening -$209 billion cumulative buy/sell difference since January 2025. What a tragicomic farce!
- Arthur Hayes, our modern-day oracle, lays out a roadmap for Bitcoin that sounds suspiciously like a choose-your-own-adventure tale: “deflation-first, QE-later.” Oh, the suspense!
XRP holds 200-week support
Behold the weekly chart by TradingView, an oracle of sorts, reflecting the existential struggle of XRP as it compresses above the sacred 200-week moving average-currently hovering around the $1.42 mark like a tightrope walker on a gusty day. Price action stabilizes at a commendable $1.47, after many trials and tribulations at this fateful junction; a threshold that has historically delineated the realms of bull from bear.
This 200-week moving average is no mere trinket for short-term traders; it is a monument to the cycles of human folly. In yesteryears, breaches beneath this mystical line heralded months of despair, while steadfast defenses have birthed accumulation zones. Alas, the fickle nature of momentum indicators betrays us, as the RSI flutters haplessly in the midrange, caught between the siren calls of overbought exuberance and the abyss of capitulation.
Fear not; XRP is not yet falling into the chasm of oblivion. The coin remains at a level that institutions monitor with bated breath. In these times of dwindling altcoin liquidity, maintaining a grip on the 200-week support becomes a beacon of relative strength amidst chaos.
Yet, should this bastion fail under the weight of high volume, the next refuge lies at the $1 region-a place where previous capitulations took form. Should it withstand the storm and weekly closes ascend above $1.60, we may witness a renaissance of sorts. XRP, dear reader, stands upon the precipice of binary fate!
Altcoins face worst sell-off since 2021: CryptoQuant
According to the latest revelations from CryptoQuant, the one-year cumulative buy/sell disparity for altcoins-excluding the stalwarts Bitcoin and Ethereum-boasts a dismal -$209 billion since January 2025. Truly a five-year extreme of despair!
Thirteen consecutive months of net CEX spot outflows paint a grim portrait of our crypto landscape. The last glimmer of equilibrium between demand and supply flickered out in January 2025, leaving us to ponder the one-way street of financial despair.
Key data points:
- Cumulative buy/sell difference: -$209 billion. A sum worthy of lamentation!
- Duration: Thirteen long months of unrelenting net selling.
- Bitcoin reference: $68,800 versus the dazzling heights of $125,000+ attained in October 2025. Oh, the irony!
It seems we are not merely witnessing a rotation within the altcoin sphere but rather a full-scale exodus as retail participants flee, smart capital takes its leave, and institutional interest withers away like autumn leaves.
Altcoin Sell Pressure Just Hit a 5-Year Extreme
“Retail is out. Smart money rotated. No institutional alt accumulation in sight. This is not a dip. It’s 13 months of continuous net selling on CEX spot.” – By @IT_Tech_PL
– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 18, 2026
The absence of buyers weighs heavily upon XRP and its non-BTC brethren. Even the mightiest technical supports weaken when liquidity drains away like the last drops from a broken bottle. While Bitcoin retains its macro narrative relevance, altcoins face a cruel descent into structural demand decay.
Historically, prolonged periods of net selling conclude only when:
- Macro liquidity expands, or,
- Capitulation leads to the exhaustion of forced sellers.
Yet, my dear friends, at present, neither condition adorns our horizon.
Arthur Hayes shares two scenarios for Bitcoin amid “AI financial crisis”
In his most recent epistle, “This is Fine,” penned on this very day, Arthur Hayes-a modern philosopher of finance-depicts Bitcoin as a fire alarm shrieking through the fog of global fiat liquidity, warning us of an impending “AI financial crisis.” How poetic!
Bitcoin’s descent from $126,000 in October 2025 to its current state of $60,000 unfolds against a backdrop where the Nasdaq 100 appears remarkably serene. Hayes interprets this divergence as an ominous harbinger of tightening dollar liquidity and deflationary forces, a prelude before traditional markets grasp the gravity of the situation.
The crux of his thesis revolves around labor displacement, as he estimates that a mere 20% reduction among the 72.1 million U.S. white-collar workers, who earn an average of $85,000, could lead to:
- $330 billion in consumer credit defaults-what a delightful disaster!
- $227 billion in mortgage losses. A feast for the pessimists!
- Approximately 13% write-down of total U.S. commercial bank equity. A veritable theater of the absurd!
Smaller regional banks will be the first to succumb, followed swiftly by depositor runs. Credit will freeze faster than a winter’s day in Siberia, thanks to digital speed and AI amplification. What fun!
Hayes presents us with two tantalizing scenarios for Bitcoin:
Scenario one
The decline to $60,000 marks the bottom of the abyss. Equities stabilize, and as soon as the Federal Reserve, in its infinite wisdom, signals renewed quantitative easing in 2026, Bitcoin rebounds with the fervor of a phoenix rising from the ashes.
Scenario two
Bitcoin plunges below $60,000 as the entire financial orchestra resounds with the dissonance of recalibrated risk assets. Bank failures accelerate, liquidity panic engulfs us, and only then does the Fed unveil its emergency stimulus, igniting a new cycle that sends Bitcoin soaring to unparalleled heights.
Both paths share a common thread: short-term deflationary pressure, followed by a grand spectacle of fiat expansion. Oh, the drama!
Hayes’s tactical advice echoes the wisdom of ages: preserve liquidity, limit leverage, and accumulate when the winds of policy reversal begin to swirl.
Crypto market outlook as of February 2026
The three segments intertwine through the invisible threads of liquidity, with XRP valiantly defending its long-cycle support, while altcoin liquidity dangles precariously at a five-year extreme of negative flow. Bitcoin, the ever-watchful sentinel, is pricing in macro stress ahead of equities. Hayes argues that monetary expansion in 2026 is as inevitable as the changing of the seasons once systemic pressures begin to escalate.
Key levels to monitor:
- Bitcoin: $60,000 serves as a critical macro pivot. Should it fall below this threshold, we shall drift toward prior consolidation zones-a treacherous journey indeed. A reclamation of $70,000-$72,000 would signal a stabilization reminiscent of warm sunshine after a storm.
- XRP: Weekly closes relative to the 200-week MA near $1.42 must be watched closely. Losing this level invites risk toward $1, whereas recovery above $1.60 may restore structural footing like a diligent gardener tending to his blooms.
Should deflation intensify before the Fed intervenes, risk assets may face further reckoning and repricing. Yet, if liquidity makes a timely return, Bitcoin is likely to lead the charge, with select majors like XRP following, albeit reluctantly, after sustained capital inflow. And so, dear reader, we find ourselves in this tangled web of cryptocurrency, where the stakes are high and laughter mingles with despair.
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2026-02-18 16:33