Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin’s Dramatic Plunge – Will It Ever Recover?

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Markets

What to know:

  • Standard Chartered, in a moment of sheer optimism, foresees bitcoin tumbling to around $50,000 and ether gracefully sliding down to $1,400 in the not-so-distant future.
  • The bank has gallantly lowered its end-2026 targets to a modest $100,000 for BTC and $4,000 for ETH, just enough to keep dreams alive.
  • Long-term projections through 2030 remain unwavering, as if they’re perched on an unshakeable pedestal, with the bank still managing to appear constructive on this enigmatic asset class.

In a rather somber announcement, investment bank Standard Chartered has decided to lower its short-term and yearly price forecasts for our beloved cryptocurrencies. The reason? A delicate cocktail of ETF outflows and a macro backdrop that could make even the sun frown.

The esteemed bank now anticipates that bitcoin will take a nosedive to about $50,000 in the coming months, while ether may find solace at approximately $1,400. How poetic!

At the time of writing, bitcoin, the crown jewel of cryptocurrencies, was trading around $67,900. Ether, the faithful sidekick, was hovering around $1,980. Quite the duo, wouldn’t you say?

Geoff Kendrick, the head honcho of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, mused that the recent selloff might extend further. It appears ETF investors, many nursing wounds from losses, are more inclined to reduce their exposure than engage in the noble act of “buying the dip.” What a twist!

Once the storm settles and prices reach a bottom, Kendrick is optimistic that we might witness a recovery throughout 2026. He has adjusted his year-end target for bitcoin to a humble $100,000 from a lofty $150,000, ether to $4,000 from $7,500, and so on, creating a veritable buffet of reduced expectations.

The crypto market has experienced a rather sharp decline early in 2026, leaving major assets like bitcoin to spiral downward from their late-2025 highs. Since the dawn of this year, bitcoin has plummeted almost 23%, as if it were in a tragic play.

This downturn has been graced by heightened volatility, large liquidations, and a risk-off sentiment that has seen crypto become more closely aligned with the faltering equity markets. How comforting!

Macro pressures, such as the looming specter of global growth concerns and interest-rate outlooks, have driven investors towards traditional sanctuaries like gold, while stalled regulatory clarity in the U.S. has left confidence feeling rather unwell. All these delightful factors have contributed to a bearish sentiment across many tokens.

Interestingly, holdings of bitcoin ETFs have plunged by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak, according to Kendrick’s insightful observations. The average ETF purchase price remains around $90,000, leaving many investors clutching their pearls over unrealized losses of about 25%. What a tragedy!

As for the macro conditions, they are also casting their shadow on sentiment. Kendrick noted that while U.S. economic data hints at softening, markets are bracing themselves for no interest-rate cuts before Kevin Warsh’s inaugural Federal Open Market Committee meeting as chair in mid-June, which offers limited near-term support for risk assets. A real cliffhanger!

Despite all this expected capitulation, the bank reassures us that the current drawdown is less dramatic than in previous cycles. At its lowest ebb in early February, bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 high, yet surprisingly half of the supply remains profitable. Perhaps it’s not as dire as one might think!

Crucially, this cycle has spared us from the cataclysmic collapses of major crypto platforms, unlike the dramatic failures of Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022. Kendrick asserts that this suggests our dear asset class is maturing and exhibiting resilience. How charming!

The analyst, in a fit of consistency, has left his longer-term projections unchanged, maintaining end-2030 targets of $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether. He argues that usage trends and structural drivers are still intact, much like an old family heirloom.

It is worth noting that Kendrick had previously reduced his overly optimistic bitcoin forecasts back in December, perhaps learning a thing or two about the market’s unpredictable nature.

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2026-02-12 18:58