SNX’s Tumultuous Tumble? 😲

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The price of Synthetix’s native token, SNX, hath, in sooth, experienced a most curious surge of 7% in the past day, ascending to a dizzying height of $0.6851. This upward frolic was accompanied by a near 40% spike in trading volume, which doth suggest a rather robust, if somewhat speculative, interest from the buying public.

However, dear reader, let us not be too hasty in our celebrations, for despite this recent rally, SNX remains a lamentable 21% below its value of a mere thirty days past. One cannot help but suspect the uncertainty surrounding the protocol’s stablecoin, sUSD, is the villain of this piece. 🤔

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Rebound, or Perhaps a Further Fall?

SNX, it seems, hath formed a “falling wedge pattern,” which sounds exceedingly precarious, does it not? If it should manage to break free above the upper trendline with sufficient volume – a rather grand “if,” I must say – it could signal a bullish reversal. The potential upside target, according to the analysts, is in the vicinity of $1.82. One can only hope such optimism is not misplaced.

On the other hand, the MACD indicator, a mysterious contraption indeed, shows the MACD line (blue) currently below the signal line (orange), indicating bearish momentum. However, the histogram is showing some lighter red bars, suggesting that the selling pressure might be decreasing. One must wonder if this is merely a temporary reprieve before the inevitable downturn. 📉

A potential bullish crossover of the MACD line above the signal line, should it occur, would signal a shift in momentum and could support further upward movement. But, alas, predictions are often as reliable as a fickle suitor’s promises.

SNX Price Chart | Source: TradingView

Moreover, applying Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high around $0.86 down to the current low around $0.55 reveals key levels of resistance. Such complexities!

The recent 7% surge hath seen SNX test the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level around $0.67. If this level can be decisively broken and held, the next potential resistance targets would be the 0.382 level around $0.73 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level around $0.80. One trusts the market will behave as predicted, but alas, hope and reality often diverge.

However, the depeg of sUSD and the uncertainty surrounding its resolution could act as a significant headwind for SNX. Failure to address the stablecoin’s issues could lead to renewed selling pressure on SNX. A most unwelcome prospect, indeed.

Depeg of sUSD and Synthetix Founder’s Ultimatum: A Most Dramatic Turn!

The price volatility in SNX coincides with the ongoing depeg of sUSD, which is currently trading at $0.7684, a 2.2% decrease in the last day and significantly below its intended $1 peg, shows CoinMarketCap data. A most unfortunate state of affairs.

A recent protocol overhaul SIP 420 appeared to have inadvertently destabilized the stablecoin by removing a key arbitrage mechanism. Oh, the unintended consequences of innovation! 🤦‍♀️

The absence of a peg stability module has left sUSD vulnerable to sustained sell pressure, with thin liquidity and concentrated automated market maker (AMM) pools exacerbating price fluctuations, as noted by Okto Chain’s Minal Thukral. Such technical jargon!

sUSD, the core stablecoin used across synthetix markets, is facing a serious and prolonged depeg.

what’s causing it, and is this just a bad patch or the start of a bigger breakdown?

quick breakdown:

sUSD is an algo-stable backed by staked SNX.after sip 420, the minting model…

— Minal Thukral (@minal_thukral) April 18, 2025

In a bid to address the sUSD depeg, Synthetix founder Kain Warwick has taken a firm stance, urging SNX stakers to actively participate in a newly launched staking mechanism. A most decisive action!

Update on the sUSD depeg. We have implemented an sUSD staking mechanism but it’s very manual until the UI goes live in a few days. Here was my hot take from discord though.

— kain.depeg (@kaiynne) April 21, 2025

The sUSD 420 Pool, introduced on April 18, incentivizes stakers to lock their sUSD for a year in exchange for a share of 5 million SNX tokens over 12 months. A tempting offer, perhaps, but one must always consider the risks.

🔔 The sUSD 420 Pool is launching with rewards starting in 36 hours 🔔

SNX stakers in the 420 Pool can deposit sUSD to earn a share of 5m SNX over 12 months – or 13,698.6 SNX daily

🧵 [1/5]

— Synthetix ⚔️ (@synthetix_io) April 18, 2025

Warwick made it clear that if sufficient participation isn’t observed once the user interface goes live, he is prepared to exert “the stick” on stakers within the sUSD 420 pool to ensure the mechanism’s success. A most forceful approach, bordering on the tyrannical, some might say! 😈

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2025-04-21 19:15