Portugal’s Big ‘Hammer’ on Polymarket

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Key Highlights

  • Portugal, in a move that would make a bureaucratic squirrel proud, has ordered Polymarket to shut down after over €103 million was bet on the presidential election.
  • Betting odds for António José Seguro skyrocketed hours before any official results, leading to whispers of early exit poll information… or perhaps a very enthusiastic group of gamblers with a time machine.
  • Polymarket, not having a license in Portugal, leaves users with the comforting thought that their money might be as secure as a teapot in a hurricane.

The Portuguese gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has issued an emergency shutdown order for Polymarket, which had the audacity to let people bet on politics during an election. Talk about a party pooper!

According to Rádio Renascença, the crackdown was triggered by suspicious “God-mode” betting patterns on January 18, where the odds for candidate António José Seguro skyrocketed to 95% victory certainty hours before a single official vote was counted-sparking allegations that traders were using leaked, embargoed exit poll data to “front-run” the public.

Authorities say the platform is operating illegally as Portuguese law does not allow betting on political events. Only sports betting, casino games, and horse racing are permitted under the country’s online gambling framework. The SRIJ said it only recently became aware of Polymarket’s presence in the country.

The regulator issued a notice giving the platform 48 hours to stop offering its services in Portugal. When the website remained accessible after the deadline, officials said they were preparing to ask internet service providers to block access. A noble cause, if ever there was one.

Why authorities are watching Polymarket closely

The SRIJ and local broadcaster Rádio Renascença highlighted a timeline that suggests the market was no longer “predicting” but “reacting” to non-public information.

António José Seguro began election day with roughly a 60% chance of winning on the platform. By around 6 PM, his odds had surged to more than 95%, even though no official projections had yet been released.

Over the next two hours, millions of euros were traded as Seguro’s probability continued to rise and his main rivals’ odds collapsed. By the time television networks aired projections at 8 PM, the betting market had already almost completely priced in his victory.

The timing of this movement has raised questions. According to Rádio Renascença, early exit poll information began circulating privately among polling firms and media organizations in the early evening.

Although these projections were under embargo and not released to the public until later, they already pointed to a comfortable win for Seguro. Regulators suspect that “whales” with access to early media briefings or polling firm data used Polymarket to “launder” their information into profit, which is just a fancy way of saying they were gambling with the future.

Polymarket faces bans beyond Portugal

Because Polymarket is not licensed in Portugal, authorities say they cannot ensure consumer protection or guarantee that Portuguese users will recover any funds placed on the platform. A delightful combination of chaos and confusion.

Portugal’s move comes as Polymarket faces growing scrutiny worldwide. The platform, founded in 2020, is already restricted in more than 30 countries, including Singapore, Belgium, Italy, Russia and Ukraine. Some governments have fully blacklisted the site, while others allow limited, view-only access.

Ukraine is one of the recent countries that added Polymarket to its official list of banned online resources after regulators classified it as unlicensed gambling. Enforcement there has been uneven, with some users reporting blocks and others still able to access the site. A digital game of Whac-a-Mole, perhaps?

Singapore also blocked Polymarket last year under its strict online gambling laws, saying the platform lacked approval under the Remote Gambling Act. A nation that values order, it seems.

These actions highlight a growing global trend of regulators treating prediction markets as illegal gambling, which is just a fancy way of saying they don’t trust people to bet on the future without a license.

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2026-01-20 17:18