Despite the Senate’s dramatic 60-40 vote to end the U.S. government shutdown, don’t pack up your popcorn just yet-showtime is still a few days away. Meanwhile, prediction markets are flipping their odds faster than a Vegas dealer, with Polymarket now betting the lights in D.C. will come back on somewhere between Nov. 12-15. Sounds like a fun game of bureaucratic musical chairs!
Traders Bet Capitol Hill’s Chaos Closes Out Soon
On Sunday, Nov. 9, 2025, the U.S. Senate pushed through a 60-40 vote to end the shutdown. Big win, right? Well, kind of. The deal would bankroll the government through Jan. 30, 2026, reverse the federal job cuts that were, frankly, just bad PR, and schedule a mid-December vote to discuss extending Affordable Care Act subsidies. You know, because nothing says “we’ve got it together” like planning for the future while still not having a clue about the present.
Still, Washington isn’t flipping the switch just yet. Lawmakers are still fiddling with the plan before sending it over to the House and then, hopefully, onto the president’s desk. So, for now, it’s like that one friend who says they’re “almost ready” but somehow never is. According to Polymarket bettors, the odds are stacked heavily in favor of this mess wrapping up between Nov. 12-15, with traders giving it a confident 85% chance. So basically, everyone’s saying it’s just about over-any minute now-probably before you finish reading this.
Polymarket’s wager, aptly titled “When will the Government shutdown end?“, has already raked in a ridiculous $22.03 million in trading volume. The once-hopeful Nov. 8-11 window is now at a mere 8%, proving that optimism about Congress is about as rare as a unicorn. Meanwhile, the Nov. 16+ bettors are almost folding their tents at 7%. It’s like a political betting pool with a slightly lower chance of winning than a lottery ticket.
Kalshi traders are also calling it like they see it-this shutdown’s on borrowed time, and they’re ready to bet their bottom dollar on it. A staggering 99% of them are betting it’ll last more than 40 days, with 98% saying it’ll creep into day 41 (hello, déjà vu). Confidence slips to 91% for 42+ days before it starts to nosedive-only 59% think it’ll drag into day 43, and just 38% think it’ll last 44 days. The rest of the market is like, “Eh, whatever, it’ll probably end when we least expect it, like all the rest of the crises.”
By day 45, the belief in Washington’s dysfunction flatlines to 25%. After that, the market’s basically given up-odds drop to 13% and 10% for 46+ and 47+ days, respectively. In short? Traders are betting on a government shutdown “wrap-up” somewhere between day 43 and 44. Long enough to make you question your life choices, but short enough to make it into the record books. Go ahead, D.C.-break that record!
All signs point to the shutdown limping toward its finale in days, not weeks. If the bettors are right, Washington’s chaos is about to clock out-just in time for everyone to start arguing about the next crisis. Ah, the cycle of government dysfunction: never a dull moment.
FAQ ❓
- When did the U.S. Senate vote to end the government shutdown? The Senate approved the deal on Nov. 9, 2025, with a 60-40 vote. And the crowd goes wild!
- How long did the government shutdown last? Prediction markets indicate it’ll last around 43-44 days. Because, of course.
- What does the new deal include? It funds the government through Jan. 30, 2026, and restores federal jobs cut during the shutdown. Just another day in paradise!
- What do prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show? Traders overwhelmingly expect the shutdown to end within the week. Again, don’t hold your breath.
Read More
- TIA PREDICTION. TIA cryptocurrency
- USD PKR PREDICTION
- Gold Rate Forecast
- OP PREDICTION. OP cryptocurrency
- GBP USD PREDICTION
- FTN/USD
- USD VES PREDICTION
- BCH PREDICTION. BCH cryptocurrency
- USD ISK PREDICTION
- EUR BRL PREDICTION
2025-11-10 20:18