In this theatre of governance, the odds of a fresh government shutdown rise like a well-timed farce. Polymarket doth proclaim that unrest in Minnesota hath stirred the Democrats to oppose a funding bill that would bind the DHS purse to other budgets. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declareth he will vote no if the package be thus yoked.
La Comédie des Côtes et des Départements
A new shutdown may descend before the curtain fall of January the thirty‑first, as if the calendar itself conspirèd with calamity to close the stage.
Polymarket odds of an upcoming government shutdown rose to all-time highs on Saturday after the fateful scene in Minnesota, where the misfortune of Alex Pretti and the Border Patrol agents hath stirred even the ledgers to weep.
The prediction market, which boasteth a liquidity of near $7 million, now points to a 74% chance that this tale shall unfold, for the Democrats have hardened their stance against funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) after the recent doings of ICE upon citizens.
The market doth declare it shall resolve to Yes “if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) proclaims another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.” Otherwise, it shall resolve to “No”.
Meanwhile, the House hath already passed a funding package and a separate bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS); yet Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hath stressed that he will not vote to pass the appropriations bill if DHS funding be included.
Schumer stated:
The DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no. Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.
Schumer later called to break up this appropriations bill and rework the DHS funding bill with more time.
If there is no agreement on the issue, the Trump administration might be facing its second government shutdown, having already experienced the largest appropriations lapse in the country’s history on October 1st. This affected the availability of critical data, including job numbers issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the activities of many essential workers.
FAQ
-
What are the current odds of a government shutdown in the U.S.? Polymarket odds indicate a 74% chance of a government shutdown occurring by January 31, 2026, following recent incidents involving Border Patrol agents.
-
What is causing the heightened likelihood of a shutdown? Democrats have hardened their stance against funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), particularly in light of recent enforcement actions by ICE.
-
What would trigger the prediction market to resolve to a shutdown? The prediction market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces a government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified deadline.
-
What has Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated about the appropriations bill? Schumer declared he would not support the appropriations bill if it included DHS funding, labeling it inadequate and calling for a reworking of the funding proposal.
Read More
- Silver Rate Forecast
- Gold Rate Forecast
- EUR UAH PREDICTION
- USD RUB PREDICTION
- USD TRY PREDICTION
- Brent Oil Forecast
- USD IDR PREDICTION
- SEI’s Suicide Dive to $0.20! 🚀😱 Or the Greatest Trick Since Woland Came to Moscow?
- Saylor’s Billion-Dollar Faceplant — Surprised? 🤔
- Crypto Lawyer Takes on Homeland Security: The Hunt for Satoshi Gets Wild! 😂
2026-01-26 16:43