Howdy, crypto cowboys and cowgirls! Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing-your daily dose of financial folly and market mayhem. 🤠
Grab your coffee, saddle up, and forget about those pesky Bitcoin price swings. What if the real story ain’t about timing the market, but about a company that’s quietly hoarding Bitcoin like a squirrel with a nut obsession? That’s the tale Strive CIO Jeff Walton’s spinnin’ about MicroStrategy (MSTR), a stock that dances with crypto but operates like a well-oiled machine, steadily stackin’ Bitcoin per share. 🕺💰
Crypto News of the Day: Jeff Walton’s Wild Ride on the MSTR Express 🚂
Jeff Walton, the Chief Risk Officer at Strive and founder of True North, reckons most investors are dumber than a bag of hammers when it comes to MicroStrategy (MSTR). 🛠️
Reflectin’ on his 2021 buys, Walton claims MSTR ain’t just a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. Nope, it’s a capital markets engine designed to hoover up Bitcoin like a vacuum cleaner on steroids. 🧹
Walton started buyin’ MSTR in June 2021 at 2.5x mNAV, thinkin’ it was already in the bargain bin. Little did he know, the stock would take a nosedive like a lead balloon, droppin’ another 80% from his cost basis. 😱
“Little did I know, the stock would fall another 80% from my cost basis,” he wrote, as MSTR collapsed nearly 90% from its February 2021 peak. 🌋
By late 2022, the company was tradin’ near 1.3x mNAV, holdin’ 129,999 Bitcoin while its debt briefly outpaced its assets. Despite bein’ “down bad on paper,” Walton said the math never broke. 📉
“The company had REAL hard money, debt covenants weren’t egregious, and structurally everything on the horizon for crypto was bullish,” he said, citin’ the halving cycle, ETFs, elections, and interest rate shenanigans. 🎢
By mid-2023, Walton went “all in,” convinced the capital structure, not price action, was the real deal. That conviction, he argues, let long-term holders survive one of the harshest drawdowns in crypto equity history. 🛡️
How Time and Structure Turned MSTR into a Bitcoin Beast 🦖
Fast forward to late 2025, and MicroStrategy now holds 672,497 Bitcoin. That’s more than 12 times the next-largest publicly traded corporate holder. Talk about a Bitcoin whale! 🐳
More importantly, Walton says the risk profile of his original shares has undergone a fundamental change. It’s like turnin’ a donkey into a race horse! 🐎
“The 1x NAV per share price is 160% greater than the 2.5x mNAV shares I purchased back in June of 2021,” Walton wrote, addin’ that the risin’ NAV floor now sits above his original cost basis. 📈
In his view, capital market activity steadily de-risked common equity while amplifying Bitcoin exposure per share. It’s like havin’ your cake and eatin’ it too! 🎂
From this point forward, Walton argues his 2021 shares can structurally outperform Bitcoin even if the company acquires zero additional BTC. It’s like a perpetual motion machine for crypto! 🔄
“There is materially more Bitcoin exposure in EACH share I purchased in 2021 than when I bought them,” he said, emphasize’n that excess Bitcoin exposure has been accreted through dilution, preferred equity, and long-dated debt rather than price appreciation alone. 💸
That framing drew support from market commentators, who argued investors were buyin’ a system, not leverage. It’s like buyin’ a factory instead of a single widget! 🏭
“Bitcoin is a bearer asset. MicroStrategy is an operating system for acquiring Bitcoin using public-market incentives,” commented one analyst. 🖥️
In Walton’s view, volatility itself became an input, effectively servin’ as fuel for accretion rather than a threat to the thesis. It’s like turnin’ lemons into lemonade! 🍋
But Is It a Structural Edge or a Cycle-Dependent Trade? 🤔
Strive CEO Matt Cole has echoed Walton’s view, recently statin’ that MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin and gold over five years. According to Cole, this could remain true even at $75,000 BTC or 1x mNAV. 🏆
The two most important words in investing are “Total Return” not “Average Cost”. $MSTR has outperformed BTC and Gold over the last five years – and this will still be true at $75k BTC or at a 1x mNAV.
Zoom out, HODL, touch grass, and you’ll outperform the bewildered haters. 🌱
– Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) December 29, 2025
However, not everyone agrees that the structural edge is guaranteed goin’ forward. Contrarian narratives argue that while five-year outperformance was real through mid-2025, MSTR materially underperformed Bitcoin during the second-half drawdown. Further, it has traded near or below 1x mNAV in recent weeks. 😕
Elsewhere, Barchart indicates that MicroStrategy was the worst-performing Nasdaq-100 stock of 2025, down roughly 65% from its peak amid a broader crypto winter. Brrr, it’s cold in here! ❄️
Critics like Peter Schiff dismissed the strategy entirely, arguin’ that MicroStrategy’s average Bitcoin cost implies modest annual returns. Talk about a party pooper! 🎉
Others warned that sustained sub-1x mNAV conditions could theoretically prompt Bitcoin sales, a scenario CEO Phong Le has acknowledged would make “mathematical” sense, although management has stressed that it is unlikely. 🤓
Still, signs of institutional interest persist. According to industry commentary, large US banks are now explorin’ partnerships with MicroStrategy, with Michael Saylor fram’n bank adoption, not price, as the defin’n Bitcoin narrative for 2026. 🏦
Phong Le says large U.S. banks want to partner with MicroStrategy.
The same Wall Street that coordinated attacks on $MSTR now wants a seat at the table.
Saylor said major banks accept’n Bitcoin will be the story of 2026. 📜
– TFTC (@TFTC21) December 3, 2025
Will MSTR’s structure prove cycle-proof? Walton argues that time and capital structure do the real work, not timing. It’s like a fine wine-it gets better with age! 🍷
Chart of the Day 📊
Byte-Sized Alpha 🧠
Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview 📈
| Company | Close As of December 29 | Pre-Market Overview |
| MicroStrategy (MSTR) | $155.39 | $155.99 (+0.39%) |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $233.77 | $234.39 (+0.27%) |
| Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) | $23.16 | $23.47 (+1.34%) |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | $9.49 | $9.50 (+0.12%) |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $13.21 | $13.30 (+0.76%) |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $15.08 | $15.09 (+0.066%) |
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2025-12-30 19:55