Insider Trading on Iran Strikes? 98% Win Rate Raises Alarms on Polymarket

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Nine Polymarket Accounts Flagged After 98% Win Rate on Iran Strikes

A group of nine connected accounts on the Polymarket platform made over $2.4 million by accurately predicting the timing of U.S. military actions in Iran, with an exceptionally high success rate of 98%.

  • Key Takeaways:

  • Nine Polymarket accounts netted over $2.4M with a 98% win rate on U.S. strikes, triggering insider alarms.
  • Over $1B has been bet on military outcomes, bleeding into commodities like an $800M drop in oil futures.
  • While Polymarket defends its AI surveillance, the CFTC under Michael Selig is using AI to fight the leaks.

The Rise of Geopolitical Betting

Nine linked accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by wagering almost exclusively on the timing of U.S. military actions in Iran, raising alarms among analysts who say the pattern strongly suggests insider trading. Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, said the accounts placed more than 80 bets with a 98% win rate, including wagers on the dates of the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.

According to Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman, a recent trend discovered on Polymarket is remarkably unusual. He believes the results are too significant to be attributed to chance alone.

According to a CBS report, more than $1 billion has been staked on military outcomes alone. However, the rise has also drawn scrutiny from regulators and investigators concerned that insiders with access to classified information may be exploiting the platforms.

Rob Schwartz, a lawyer at Morgan Lewis and former government official with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, believes Polymarket’s trading activity represents a novel form of insider trading. Although all transactions on Polymarket are public, the people making those trades are not identified.

However, Polymarket said it has built “the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry,” combining strict insider‑trading rules, AI‑powered surveillance and blockchain forensics. The company said its enhanced market integrity rules prohibit insider trading, market manipulation and disruptive practices across both its decentralized platform and its CFTC‑regulated U.S. exchange.

Polymarket works with leading data analytics companies to monitor trading activity in real time and identify anything unusual. They report any suspicious behavior to the authorities.

The company stated that the indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke proves their dedication to upholding the law. Polymarket detected suspicious activity, reported it to the proper authorities, and the system functioned as intended. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and anyone who tries it will be caught.

Army Master Sergeant Van Dyke was charged last month with illegal betting based on classified information about a secret operation aimed at Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors allege he made around $34,000 in bets and profited over $400,000. He has denied the charges.

Watchdogs Warn of Systemic Abuse

According to Bubblemaps’ lead investigator, a large number of people knowing sensitive operational details – including those involved in planning, intelligence gathering, and even family members – significantly increases the risk of misuse or leaks.

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective discovered similar suspicious activity. They analyzed high-stakes bets on Polymarket – those over $2,500 with low odds of winning – and found winners were succeeding more frequently than chance would predict. The group believes this points to widespread insider trading.

Suspicious activity has also surfaced in traditional commodities markets. On March 23, as fighting in Iran continued, more than $800 million in oil futures were suddenly placed on the expectation that prices would fall. Fifteen minutes later, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive” talks. Oil prices dropped more than 10%.

David Kovel, who used to be a commodities trader and now helps people who were defrauded, estimates the losses could be as high as $80 million. Federal investigators are looking into the trades, but so far, no one has been charged with any wrongdoing.

The stakes extend beyond financial markets. Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for the Times of Israel, said he received violent threats from bettors after reporting that an Iranian missile strike landed in an empty forest — a detail that voided certain Polymarket wagers. Polymarket banned the accounts involved.

Oversight of prediction markets falls to the CFTC, which has seen staffing and enforcement decline in recent years. Chairman Michael Selig declined an interview but said the agency is hiring and using artificial intelligence to identify misconduct. In March, the White House reminded staff that using nonpublic information on prediction markets is a criminal offense.

Deebs cautioned that the potential consequences extend beyond just financial crimes. He explained that if experts can identify unusual trading patterns, hostile foreign governments could also spot them – and might change their military strategies as a result.

“Just to put it plainly, this could be putting people’s lives at risk,” he said.

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2026-05-19 03:32