Hold onto Your Wallets! Bitcoin Might Be on Its Way to $85K!

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So, hedge funds are finally cutting back on their Bitcoin shorts. I mean, who wouldn’t want to take a break from betting against something that’s already been through the wringer? It’s like betting against the Titanic after it hit the iceberg-what’s the point?

CME Bitcoin futures data is all the buzz right now. You’d think they discovered a cure for hiccups with how excited everyone is. Market observers have noticed a setup that looks a lot like those moments before Bitcoin goes on a wild ride. You know, like that time you thought eating an entire pizza was a good idea until you regretted it five minutes later.

And guess what? The CFTC has new data suggesting that some large speculators are stepping back from their overly aggressive bearish bets. It’s like watching someone slowly back away from a buffet after realizing they just devoured an entire plate of mystery meat.

Bitcoin Deleveraging Deepens as Futures Sentiment Turns

The latest CFTC report shows that non-commercial traders are slashing their net short exposure faster than I can say “not interested.” This usually means everyone’s had a change of heart about BTC futures. Kind of like when you realize that the guy at the bar isn’t as charming as you thought after the fifth drink.

🚨 CME SMART MONEY SHIFT SIGNALS POTENTIAL REVERSAL TO 85K

Remember when Bitcoin hit rock bottom in April 2025? Yeah, no one does because we were too busy watching paint dry. But now it seems like that flip might be happening again in 2026. Exciting, right?

According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report…

– CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us)

Analysts are connecting the dots to past flips. You know, like the way you connect your socks with that one odd sock you can never find. In April 2023 and April 2025, Bitcoin found its footing right after futures positioning turned less bearish. Coincidence? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet my lunch money on it.

After those shifts, Bitcoin soared like my blood pressure when I see a long line at the coffee shop-190% in 2023 and around 70% after the April 2025 shift. And here we are again, watching for signs that it could happen once more.

Let’s talk numbers: the Aggregate CME Bitcoin open interest has shrunk from a staggering $22 billion to about $7-9 billion. Over half of that peak leverage has been cleared out like my fridge after a holiday party.

Image Source: CoinGlass

The reset phase here suggests a few key points:

  • Many forced liquidations have already happened-like a bad haircut that’s finally grown out.
  • Excess leverage from the last rally has been cleared-goodbye, overconfidence!
  • The futures market is looking less crowded, which is nice. You don’t want to feel like you’re crammed into a subway car during rush hour.
  • A strong new build-up in positions hasn’t quite kicked off yet. It’s like waiting for the right moment to make your move at a party.

Deep leverage flushes usually come before strong directional moves in Bitcoin. However, open interest isn’t climbing meaningfully just yet, suggesting traders are still repositioning rather than confirming a breakout. So, hold your horses, folks!

Image Source: CryptoQuant

The futures basis is looking a bit cautious too. Remember late 2024? Those three- to six-month CME contracts were trading at annualized premiums between 4% and 6%. Now, they’re down to about 1% to 2%, with some even close to flat. It’s like watching your favorite show drop from must-see TV to just mildly interesting.

CME Basis Narrows as Traders Reset, $85K Scenario Gains Attention

The narrowed basis suggests short covering has kicked off, but strong long conviction? Not so much. Breakouts in previous cycles had a recognizable sequence-like a bad sitcom:

Short covering reduces downside pressure

  • Futures basis gradually rebuilds.
  • Open interest expands alongside price strength.
  • Momentum traders re-enter as the trend confirms.

Analysts are saying the market seems stuck between the first and second stages right now. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Like being stuck in traffic when you’re already late.

BTC investment vehicles saw solid inflows during earlier rallies, but lately? It’s been a rollercoaster of alternating inflows and outflows. It’s like my diet-one minute I’m all in, the next, not so much.

Derivatives traders usually get into position before spot allocators dive in. So, if the basis starts to rebuild and open interest ticks up while ETF inflows strengthen, we could be setting up for a push toward $85,000 in the coming weeks. Or we might just be stuck watching cat videos. Who knows?

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2026-02-23 23:35