Hedera’s 20% Drop: Can It Bounce Back?

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Hedera lies under a heavy sky, down more than 10% in seven days, and this is not just a petty pullback. The HBAR price structure wears thin, capital drips away, and sentiment sinks to depths not witnessed in months.

Together, these portents weave a grim tapestry: a rising risk of a deeper correction. Yet a slender thread remains-dip buyers and the tremor of derivatives-offering a narrow path to a rebound. Whether HBAR breaks down or steadies now rests upon a handful of thresholds.

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern and CMF Breakdown Signal Structural Risk

The price chart resembles a weary figure nearing a head-and-shoulders moment. It looms as a potential bearish reversal once the neckline yields.

For the HBAR price, the neckline sits near $0.102. A daily close below this line would unleash a projected downside move of more than 20%, echoing prior breakdowns from similar shapes.

This risk is reinforced by the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF is the ledger of where capital chooses to wander, a blend of price and volume. When CMF sinks below zero, it murmurs of net capital outflows.

HBAR’s CMF has now broken below a descending support line and slipped decisively under zero. The last time CMF plunged this sharply was in early December, just before Hedera fell nearly 25%. This is not a polite wiggle; it is selling pressure wearing a mask of routine activity.

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As long as CMF remains negative and the neckline remains under siege, the bearish structure stays alive, like a confession that won’t be silenced.

Falling Positive Sentiment Adds a Second Layer of Pressure

Price weakness is now being echoed by sentiment data, and the market seems to cough out its faith.

Positive sentiment tracks how much favorable discussion and commentary surround an asset across social and market sources. When positive sentiment sinks to local lows, confidence fades and willingness to buy dips thins out.

Hedera’s positive sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since late October. Historically, such troughs have marched in lockstep with price declines.

On November 9, sentiment hit a local low while HBAR traded near $0.17. Within two weeks, the price slid to around $0.13.

The current setup looks suspiciously familiar. Sentiment weakens first, while price clings to a stubborn support. Such divergence often drags the price lower to meet the confidence level. With structure and sentiment both pointing down, the downside risk is clearly elevated, like fate nudging you toward a chair you hoped would be free.

Dip Buying and Derivatives Keep Hedera Reversal Hopes Alive

Yet even amid these prophecies of doom, there are signs of life beneath the surface, a stubborn heartbeat in the markets.

Spot exchange data shows net outflows picking up over the past two days as the HBAR price corrected by almost 5%. Net outflows occur when more tokens leave exchanges than enter, which usually signals buying or long-term holding. On January 24, net outflows stood near $1.41 million, rising to roughly $1.60 million on January 25. This suggests dip buyers are slipping in after the recent selling, perhaps with a sly smile and a raised eyebrow.

Derivatives data adds another layer. On Bitget’s HBAR perpetual market, cumulative short liquidation exposure over the next seven days sits near $7.40 million, compared with about $4.28 million in long liquidations. This 70% imbalance towards shorts means a large portion of traders are positioned for further downside, perhaps bravely narrating their own tragedy.

When short exposure outweighs longs by this margin, even a modest price recovery can trigger short liquidations. Those forced-buy orders can accelerate upside moves. This creates a narrow window in which bearish positioning could fuel a bounce, as if fortune itself hesitates at the threshold of a door.

Critical HBAR Price Levels To Track Now

HBAR price action now holds the final verdict, written in chalk on a wall that may collapse any moment.

On the downside, $0.100-$0.102 is the key level. A daily close below it would confirm the head-and-shoulders breakdown and open the path toward $0.080, matching the 20% downside projection.

On the upside, Hedera must first reclaim $0.105 to show short-term stabilization. The real test comes at $0.112, which aligns with a key Fibonacci level and the right-shoulder resistance. A clean move above $0.112 would invalidate the right shoulder, weaken the bearish pattern, and likely trigger a big cluster of short liquidations.

If that happens, the HBAR price could extend toward $0.128, where prior supply and resistance sit, like a crowd that refuses to forget its own history.

For now, the balance remains fragile. Bearish metrics are piling up, but dip buying and short positioning leave a narrow door open for a reversal. The next few daily closes will decide which side takes control.

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2026-01-25 22:16