Expert Reveals: Strategy’s Bitcoin Buy Doesn’t Move the Market. Shocking, Right?

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Turns out, all that hype about Strategy’s bitcoin buying spree causing price jumps is about as real as a unicorn at a tea party. A leading digital assets guru just dropped some cold, hard facts, showing that Strategy’s influence on Bitcoin’s price is weaker than a paper umbrella in a hurricane.

Strategy’s Market Impact: Not Quite the Earth-Shattering Event You Thought

Matthew Sigel, the digital assets expert at Vaneck (no, it’s not a name for a wizard from a forgotten realm), is here to burst your bubble. He took to social media (aka X, formerly known as Twitter, because we can’t have anything simple) to publicly demolish the idea that Microstrategy (which, for reasons that escape logic, has now decided to rebrand as “Strategy”) is somehow pulling the strings on Bitcoin’s price. Spoiler alert: They’re not.

Sigel’s post started with a no-nonsense, cut-to-the-chase statement:

Does MSTR drive bitcoin price? TLDR: No.

He crunched the numbers from October 14, 2024, to April 20, 2025, using data from TD Cowen and Bitcoinity (don’t ask me, I’m just the messenger). The result? Strategy’s impact on the market was about as noticeable as a pin in a haystack. Sure, they bought a few bitcoin here and there, but most weeks, their purchases were a minor blip in the grand scheme of things.

“Most weeks, Strategy accounts for only a low-single digit percentage (3.3%, to be precise),” Sigel pointed out, as if revealing the secret to why socks disappear in the laundry. The weekly average? A whopping 8.4%—but that’s only because of four weeks where they were feeling extra adventurous. For eight weeks, they didn’t even bother buying any bitcoin. Let that sink in.

Now, don’t get too excited about their aggressive bitcoin accumulation. As of April 20, they’ve added 6,556 BTC for a cool $555.8 million at an average price of $84,785 per bitcoin. So, yeah, they now hold 538,200 BTC worth about $36.47 billion, but somehow this doesn’t really make much of a dent in the market. Their return so far? A modest 12.1% in 2025. Congrats, I guess?

But wait, it gets better. Sigel went full Sherlock Holmes on the data and found absolutely no statistical correlation between Strategy’s bitcoin buying and the price of BTC. I mean, zip, nada, nothing. Their purchases barely moved the needle. As he so eloquently put it:

Statistically speaking, there is little to no correlation between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin purchase volume and either BTC price at the end of the week (25% correlation coefficient) OR the change in BTC price over the course of the week (28% correlation coefficient).

For those who aren’t mathematically inclined, that means their purchases have as much impact on Bitcoin’s price as a butterfly flapping its wings in a hurricane.

And just when you thought it couldn’t get any more anticlimactic, Sigel also gave a thumbs down to the theory that bitcoin miners are the ones calling the shots on price. With so much market trading happening, miners are simply “price takers,” not price makers. It’s like trying to predict the weather by staring at a raindrop. In other words, it’s the broader market, not corporate buyers or miners, that’s setting the price.

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2025-04-23 04:59