Crypto’s Doom: Business Cycles Strike Back

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The price of Bitcoin, that digital ghost haunting Wall Street, jumped about 4% in the past 24 hours, flirting with $110,000 like a coy lover. Short-term traders, those antsy gamblers, are eyeing a break above $112,200 as a sign of strength, while the long-term holders-those stoic old timers-sit quietly, still counting their stacks of profit.

Rumors whisper that easing tensions between the US and China might give risk assets like Bitcoin a fleeting boost. Ah, geopolitics-just another spice in the stew of market chaos.

Macro Risks: The Silent Assassin

Willy Woo, an analyst with the weary eyes of someone who’s seen too many cycles, warns that the next crypto bear market might not follow the usual script. No, it could be driven by something far more mundane but equally deadly: the “business cycle.”

He pointed out, with the exasperation of a man trying to explain rain to a fish, that two cycles have overlapped so far: the four-year Bitcoin halving rhythm and swings in M2 money supply.

Woo cautioned that a true business cycle contraction-like the ones in 2001 and 2008-would be a whole new beast for Bitcoin to wrestle. 🐻💥

“We had two 4-year cycles superimposed. Now it’s only one: global M2 liquidity. Next bear, mark my words, will be defined by another cycle people forget about: the business cycle. The last downturns that really took hold were 2001 and 2008, back when crypto was just a glimmer in Satoshi’s eye.”

– Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 20, 2025

History’s Ghosts: A Not-So-Comforting Guide

The dot-com crash of 2001 saw US stocks tumble roughly 50% over two years. Then came 2008, when the financial crisis dropped the S&P 500 by about 56% as credit froze and GDP wobbled.

These events happened before crypto existed, which is why Woo says Bitcoin hasn’t yet been stress-tested by a full-blown recession. The concern, as always, is how liquidity would shift and how quickly investors would dump their riskier toys.

Liquidity And Recession Signals: The Canary In The Coal Mine

The National Bureau of Economic Research keeps tabs on employment, personal income, industrial production, and retail sales to sniff out recessions. Right now, there’s no screaming alarm for a deep downturn, but the risks are lurking like a hungry coyote.

Trade tariffs, those pesky political tools, trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to weigh on GDP into the first half of 2026. Slow growth, that silent killer, can drain liquidity and squeeze markets tighter than a banker’s wallet.

“$BTC has reclaimed the $109,000-$110,000 support zone. The next crucial level to reclaim is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin higher. With US-China trade tensions easing, I think BTC could rally more from here.”

– Ted (@TedPillows) October 20, 2025

What Traders Are Watching: The Next Act

Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin has regained its footing between $109,000 and $110,000, with $112,000 as the next big hurdle. A clean break above that zone might lure in more buyers, while a liquidity squeeze from a broader recession could force Bitcoin to behave like tech stocks did in past downturns-not the shiny safe haven of gold.

The Real Test: Cash Is King

Woo insists the real test for Bitcoin will come when cash gets tight, and investors have to decide where to stash their money. This moment, he says, will separate those who treated Bitcoin as a hedge from those who treated it as a high-risk gamble. The outcome? It’ll shape how institutions behave and what rules the market plays by. 🎲

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2025-10-22 05:16