Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle: R.I.P. 💀

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So, this Arthur Hayes fellow – a name, mind you, for those who dwell in the digital dens of BitMEX – has declared the four-year crypto cycle officially…deceased. Not because of some fancy blockchain mumbo-jumbo, oh no. It’s apparently all down to the age-old games of nations and their relentless printing of money. 🙄

“Traders, with their predictable faith in patterns, are yearning to declare this bull run over, appealing to the historical four-year rhythm,” Hayes scribbled in a blog post. ” Fools! It will fail this time.” A dramatic flair, wouldn’t you say?

He insists these cycles aren’t some grand cosmic design linked to Bitcoin’s ‘halving’ events or wealthy investors taking a fancy to digital trinkets. Nay! It’s the ebb and flow of US dollars and, wouldn’t you know it, the Chinese yuan. When the money taps are turned off, that’s when the party ends, not because of some arbitrary four-year schedule.

This Time is…Different (Aren’t They All?)

Apparently, things are *special* now. The US Treasury is flinging $2.5 trillion into the market like confetti, and our former friend Trump wanted to “run it hot” – a delightfully vague expression for reckless monetary policy. 🤷‍♀️ And let’s not forget the relaxing of rules for banks, ensuring even *more* lending. Because what could possibly go wrong?

The Federal Reserve, despite all the talk of scary inflation, is actually cutting interest rates! CME futures predict more cuts in October and December. Truly, a spectacle.

It’s All About the Benjamins & The Renminbi

Hayes recounts history. The first Bitcoin boom? Courtesy of the Fed and China simultaneously opening the money spigots. It ended when they both, rather rudely, decided to close them. The “ICO craze”? Blame the yuan’s wild ride in 2015. Another boom and bust. The COVID cycle? Pure USD liquidity! Then the Fed tightened the screws again. It’s a simple tale, really – money goes in, price goes up; money goes out, price goes…down. Who knew economics could be so straightforward? 😂

China, Taking a Backseat (Finally?)

China isn’t expected to send this cycle crashing. It is switching from trying to stamp out all the inflation to “ending deflation.” A small shift, maybe, but enough to allow the US to pump money into the system without China working to start a recession. Well done, US and China!

“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!”

The Blind Faith Persists…

Some still cling to the four-year cycle like a life raft. Glassnode, those on-chain ‘experts’, see echoes of the past. And someone from Gemini, Saad Ahmed, suggests we’ll *always* see some form of a cycle. It’s comforting, isn’t it? To believe in patterns in a world utterly devoid of logic. But Hayes, bless his cynical heart, has other ideas. 🤡

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2025-10-09 06:49