Crypto on Edge: Fed Rate-Cut Hope, BTC at $92K & ETH Soaring!

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Markets

What to know:

  • Risk assets are buoyant ahead of the Fed, but rate decisions often trigger sharp intraday swings. Think of it as crypto’s version of a “surprise party” – everyone’s excited, but no one knows what’s coming. 🎉💣
  • Bitcoin sits at $92,300, bouncing between $88k and $94.5k like a confused hamster on a wheel. 🐹💸 A break of either bound? More drama than a daytime soap. 📺
  • Ether is outperforming post-Fusaka upgrade, but broader altcoin sentiment is weak. CoinMarketCap’s altcoin season index is at 16/100 – basically, a ghost town. 🏙️👻 HYPE, STRK, KAS, and APT are the walking dead, while AI token FET is doing a comeback kid act. 🎭

The crypto market is in a buoyant mood ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. Let’s just say, if the Fed were a person, they’d be the one who says, “I’m going to cut rates!” and then immediately forget about it. 🧠

The overwhelming expectation is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, a move seen as favorable to risk assets like bitcoin. Because nothing says “I’m feeling lucky” like a 0.25% tweak to your mortgage. 🏠

BTC is trading at $92,300 having risen by 2.3% in the past 24 hours. Ether outperformed bitcoin with a 7% gain. It’s like the underdog finally getting a standing ovation… until the next plot twist. 🎭

Interest-rate decisions often create volatile trading sessions. While a 25 bps rate cut can be perceived as bullish, there’s a scenario where traders decide further gains are unlikely and sell once the news is released. Think of it as crypto’s version of “buy the rumour, sell the news.” 📈📉

Bitcoin has formed a trading range between $88,000 and $94,500 over the past week. A break of either one of those levels will indicate the direction of future moves. Or, as I like to call it, “the crypto version of a choose-your-own-adventure book.” 📖

Derivatives positioning

  • Volmex’s one-day bitcoin implied volatility climbed to 67% from 20%. That’s more drama than a reality TV show. 🎬
  • The latest reading implies an expected 24-hour price swing of 3.5%, which is now out of the ordinary. That means the Fed meeting is not seen having an outsized impact on the market. Or, as I like to say, “The Fed’s not the star of this show.” 🎭
  • ETH eyes a 4.6% move, while SOL and XRP are projected at 5%. It’s like a crypto Olympics – everyone’s trying to outdo the others. 🏅
  • BTC’s options-based implied volatility term structure is slightly inverted, with volatility at the front-end pricier than at the long-end. Should the Fed decision turn out to be a dud, the curve could rapidly normalize. Or, as the market would say, “We’ll see.” 🤷‍♂️
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts remain pricier than calls. Block flows over past 24 hours featured ETH strangles and straddles, a sign of traders are positioning for volatility. For BTC, traders chased risk reversals. It’s like everyone’s betting on a hurricane. 🌪️
  • In futures, open interest (OI) has increased in most major tokens, with ether rising 8% to 12.4 million ETH, a level not seen since Dec. 2. It’s like a reunion of old friends – awkward, but kind of sweet. 🤗
  • Cardano open interest briefly rose to 1.80 billion ADA, the highest since Oct. 10, and recently at 1.71 billion ADA. It’s like a ghost town that just got a visitor. 🏚️
  • BCH, XMR, WLFI have deeply negative annualized funding rates, a sign of traders chasing bearish, short positions. It’s like everyone’s rooting for a disaster. 🙅‍♂️
  • On the CME, OI in ether futures has risen back above 2 million ETH, while positioning in BTC remains at multimonth lows. It’s like the Fed’s playing favorites. 🎲

Token talk

  • With the exception of ether, which is gaining attention following last week’s Fusaka upgrade, the altcoin market continues to lag. It’s like a party where only one guest is having fun. 🎉
  • CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator is printing 16/100, a cycle low and a stark contrast to September’s reading of 78/100. It’s like a desert in a rainforest. 🌴🏜️
  • One reason for this could be traders preferring larger market cap tokens like bitcoin and ether as there is more liquidity and thus less volatility ahead of an event like the U.S. interest-rate decision. Or, as I like to say, “Bigger is better, but also more boring.” 🥱
  • Over the past week, derivatives token HYPE has been one of the worst performers, losing 15% of its value. STRK, KAS and APT have also been dealt double-digit moves to the downside. It’s like a sad clown at a birthday party. 🎈😢
  • The AI-focused token FET was one of the top gainers over the past 24 hours, rising by 9.3% as it rebounds from a recent slide. It remains heavily deflated on higher time frames though, having lost 1.6% over the past week to compound a year-to-date decline of more than 80%. It’s like a phoenix that forgot to burn. 🦅🔥

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2025-12-10 14:55