Some people collect snow globes. Others, apparently, stare at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) until it arranges itself into a shape reminiscent of optimism. Kevin Svenson, an enthusiastic crypto analyst and probably the owner of at least two ergonomic keyboards, is doing just that. He’s currently watching the weekly RSI, a so-called “momentum indicator,” like it’s the season finale of The Bachelor—only with fewer roses and a disturbingly similar amount of drama.
According to Svenson, this RSI has been strangled by a resistance trendline since January. If you’re not familiar, that means the RSI has spent most of 2024 climbing a wall higher than the one between you and your neighbor’s Wi-Fi. But, he claims, this infamous trendline is about to crack. “Five days until full confirmation,” Svenson wrote, as though the RSI were a soufflé, and he’s waiting with an oven mitt, poised for greatness.
Svenson has charts, naturally. These charts highlight previous moments in 2023 when the weekly RSI “broke out,” presumably after several motivational speeches and a shot of espresso. Each time, Bitcoin leapt in price, as if startled by its own reflection. So, if the RSI can just get itself together, we could be on the verge of—you guessed it—a Bullish Breakout. Capital Bs; it’s that serious.
| Weekly RSI Breakouts
Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators.
6 Days until full confirmation 🚀📈
— Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_)
Daily Chart: Jumping the Gun
If patience isn’t your virtue (relatable), Svenson points out that Bitcoin has already made its move on the daily chart. This is a little like leaving the movie because you read the spoilers—why wait for the weekly confirmation when you can get that serotonin now?
“Bitcoin attempting to break out,” he remarked, possibly while biting his nails and refreshing his screen every three seconds. The daily chart, according to this, has already leapfrogged a descending resistance, which for Bitcoin, seems to happen about as often as I lose my keys.
Why You’re Supposed to Care About RSI Breakouts
The RSI measures if the market is too overexcited (“overbought”) or just clinically depressed (“oversold”). If it suddenly “breaks out” above months of pessimism, this allegedly means Bitcoin could soon rally—like that friend who, after six months of ghosting, suddenly wants to meet for coffee.
If Bitcoin’s RSI closes the week above the trendline, the consensus among traders is to break out the green confetti and envision that $90,000 all-time high. Or, at the very least, to pretend that they knew all along this would happen, even if their crypto wallet currently contains $11.43 and a meme coin named after a failed dog.
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2025-04-15 21:37