Cardano’s Rally Falters: 9% Range Risk Looms!

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Behold, the Cardano price, in its fleeting surge, has ascended nearly 21% over the past seven days, a veritable tempest of gains that has left the crypto markets in a state of bemused admiration. 🌪️📈 Yet, as the saying goes, even the most radiant sun must eventually cast a shadow.

But lo! Upon closer inspection, the picture reveals a more intricate tapestry. While the broader trend still ascends, the momentum indicators whisper of a cooling fervor. Instead of a sharp pullback, the data now leans toward a range-bound phase, a dance of uncertainty before the next grand performance. 🕺

Bullish Trend Holds, But Momentum Is Cooling on the 12-Hour Chart

On the 12-hour chart, Cardano continues its rise, a ship navigating a rising tide. One key bullish signal is the looming exponential moving average (EMA) crossover, where the 20-period EMA inches closer to the 50-period EMA, like two lovers finally uniting after a long separation. 💑

An exponential moving average, that most cunning of tools, smooths the chaos of price data, granting more weight to recent whispers of the market. When a shorter-term EMA crosses above a longer-term one, it is said to signal a strengthening trend. This setup, dear reader, suggests that Cardano’s mid-term journey remains bullish, though with a touch of hesitation. 🤔

Yet, momentum, that fickle companion, tells a different tale. Between December 9 and January 6, the price trended lower, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed higher-a hidden bearish divergence, a subtle warning in the dance of numbers. 🕯️

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If the next Cardano price candle forms under $0.43, it would confirm the lower-high price formation and expand the pullback risk. A cruel jest, indeed, for those who dared to hope. 🤡

In simple terms, the trend is still moving up, but with the vigor of a weary old man. That combination often leads to consolidation, a temporary truce in the market’s eternal war. 🛑

Low Coin Movement Shows Holders Are Patient, Not Panicking

On-chain data, that most enigmatic of oracles, helps explain why a deep pullback appears unlikely. Spent Coins Age Bands, a curious metric, tracks how much Cardano is being moved by holders of different time horizons. Rising values mean more coins are being spent; falling values mean holders are stoic guardians of their assets. 🛡️

Two important groups stand out. Coins held by short-term ADA holders (7-30 days) saw spending drop sharply, from about 58.7 million ADA to just 4.1 million ADA-a 87% decline over the past 24 hours. At the same time, coins held by very long-term holders (2-3 years) fell from roughly 3 million ADA to about 382,000 ADA, a 93% drop. 🧠

This tells a clear story. Both short-term traders and long-term investors are choosing patience. There is no sign of panic selling or aggressive profit-taking, even after a strong weekly rally. A testament to the resilience of the market’s soul. 🧘‍♂️

When momentum cools, but coin movement stays low, markets often shift sideways, in a range, instead of breaking down. A quiet, unassuming rebellion against chaos. 🌊

Cardano Price Levels Point to a 9% Range

With trend strength and momentum cooling colliding, price levels now matter most. The Cardano price needs to hold above $0.39 to keep the bullish structure intact. That level acts as near-term support, a fragile promise of stability. 🧱

If price slips below it, a deeper pullback toward $0.33 becomes possible. A grim specter, indeed. On the upside, the key level to watch is $0.43. A clean break and hold above that zone would invalidate the bearish divergence for now and allow momentum to rebuild. 🌱

Until one of those levels breaks, the most likely outcome is a range between $0.39 and $0.43, which represents roughly a 9% trading box. A cage of uncertainty, yet a haven for those who dare to wait. 🧩

That range fits the current data. The trend remains bullish; holders are not selling, but momentum needs time to reset. A delicate balance, much like a waltz between hope and despair. 💃🕺

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2026-01-06 11:41