BTC & ETH Stay Calm as Traders Wait for CPI & China-U.S. Drama!

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Markets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum are playing hide and seek with their prices, waiting for the U.S. CPI report to make a move. 🎯
  • Polymarket traders are betting on a happy ending, but with 16% chance of Trump’s 100% tariffs-because nothing says “friendship” like a 100% tax! 🤡
  • Asia-Pacific markets, including Japan’s Nikkei 225, took a dive, all because of Trump’s export talk. It’s like a toddler throwing a tantrum, and the market is the parent. 😢

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% on the week, while Ether is changing hands near $3,815. It’s like a horse race where the winner is still deciding if they want to run. 🐴

The rebound reflects what QCP Capital called a “narrow-range equilibrium” as traders await Friday’s CPI report, the only major U.S. economic data release not delayed by the shutdown. Imagine a game of chess where the only move left is a stalemate. 🏁

In its note, QCP said CPI is the “singular anchor” for policy expectations and risk sentiment, noting that a softer 0.2% print could “re-anchor the soft-landing trade” and support Bitcoin’s upside skew as liquidity expectations improve. Until then, volatility is likely to stay elevated, with dips finding support if the dollar and real yields ease further. It’s like a seesaw with no one on the other end. 🪜

Polymarket traders now assign a 77% probability that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff agreement by Nov. 10, while the odds of Trump’s promised 100% tariffs on China taking effect have fallen to 16%. The drama is thicker than a New Orleans gumbo! 🍲

In its note, QCP argues that Trump will once again opt for a symbolic deal over confrontation, making the upcoming meeting with Xi “pragmatic”, a view reinforced by his softer weekend remarks that “the USA wants to help China, not hurt it.” If only the tariffs were as friendly as his words. 🤝

The relative calm in both crypto and equities reflects this détente narrative. It’s like a truce in a war that’s still simmering. 🔥

Last week’s $20 billion liquidation flush and Binance’s collateral mispricing have largely run their course, setting a cleaner slate for macro traders heading into the CPI event. Like a messy room finally cleaned, but the mess is just hiding under the bed. 🧹

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $108K, consolidating after a recent run‑up, with sellers limiting immediate breakout potential while analysts at Standard Chartered say a dip below $100,000 could be a “last chance to buy” before the next leg higher. It’s like a last-minute sale at a flea market, but with crypto. 💸

ETH: Ethereum is trading around $3,800 with volume up 33% as traders accumulate ahead of U.S. inflation data, though a $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700 million in profit-taking and long liquidations, leaving analysts divided between a potential breakout toward $5,000 or a slide toward $2,850 if support at $3,470 fails. It’s like a party where someone brought a fire extinguisher and everyone panicked. 🚨

Gold: Gold continues to experience a record-setting sell-off with futures down 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce after Tuesday’s 5.7% plunge, as investors took profits from its record run, though analysts said strong central-bank buying and rate-cut expectations should keep bullion supported. Like a sinking ship with a life jacket-still sinking, but at least you won’t drown. 🚢

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%, after reports that the Trump administration may restrict exports to China reignited U.S.-China trade tensions. It’s like a soap opera where the drama never ends. 🎭

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2025-10-23 05:30