Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Halvings, Cycles, and Greed Galore! 🎢💸

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Ah, dear reader, gather ’round for a tale of Bitcoin‘s capricious whims! Forsooth, the learned James Check doth proclaim that these market cycles are not tethered to halvings as common folk believe. Nay, he insists it is adoption trends and market structure that hold sway over this digital beast. 😏

“Pray tell,” quoth Check on Wednesday, “Bitcoin hath seen three cycles, none bound by halvings.” He speaketh of those moments when mining rewards dwindle every four years-a spectacle many deem sacred. Yet, our sage attributes peaks like 2017 and troughs such as 2022 to grander forces: adoption and leverage. 📈📉

Lo, let us revel in his taxonomy of cycles past: the “adoption cycle” (2011-2018), where retail mortals flocked; the “adolescence cycle” (2018-2022), replete with wild speculation and ruinous leverage; and now, the “maturity cycle,” graced by institutional sobriety. “Mark my words,” he warns, “those who cling to history’s noise shall miss the signal!” 🕵️‍♂️

The Halving Theory Stumbles Onward

Yet hark! Despite Check’s bold assertions, some still cleave to the notion that Bitcoin dances to the tune of its halving events. Four-year cycles, they cry, dictated by supply shocks and soaring demand! Indeed, bull markets have peaked post-halving, in 2013, 2017, 2021-and perchance again in 2025? Or so the optimists dream. 💭

Check, ever the provocateur, declares Bitcoin akin to gold-an endgame asset! Could this maturity extend the cycle further? Methinks the answer lies within institutional intrigue. 🏛️

Hath the Four-Year Cycle Met Its Doom?

Whispers abound that the venerable four-year cycle is naught but a relic. Matthew Hougan of Bitwise proclaims it “over”-though perhaps not until 2026 reveals itself. And lo, TechDev regales his flock of X followers with charts aplenty, declaring business cycles supreme. Liquidity, not halvings, drives the beast! 🐉

Glassnode Rings the Bell

But soft! Analysts at Glassnode spy signs of an impending finale. Profit-taking and selling pressure suggest we draw nigh to the cycle’s twilight hours. Bob Loukas, trader extraordinaire, offers a wry chuckle: “Cycles never cease-we simply pump till we burst, then begin anew. The trick, dear fools, is avoiding the shrapnel.” 🤷‍♂️💥

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2025-08-27 08:52