Ah, Bitcoin (BTC), that capricious creature of the digital realm, dances once more, seeking the elusive heights of fresh all-time highs as a week of macroeconomic trials unfolds for those brave enough to trade in risk assets. 🧐
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Our dear BTC dipped below the $107,000 mark, only to rebound like a cat with nine lives, leaving some traders giddy with anticipation of new record highs. 🐱👤
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This week, US inflation data meets the woes of the bond market, while the Federal Reserve remains as stubborn as a mule, showing no signs of cutting interest rates. 🐴
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On the exchanges, the taker buy/sell ratio is raising eyebrows, as order book activity cools down like a winter’s night. ❄️
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Yet, one whale is having a jolly good time, with his successive longs and shorts becoming the talk of the trading town. 🐳
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Funding rates are not spiking, which is a silver lining for those hoping for price sustainability. 🌈
Bitcoin’s Price Discovery: A Dance of Rebounds
Bitcoin, in a dramatic twist, swapped its late-weekend weakness for gains, closing the May 25 weekly candle above the $110,000 mark. 🎉
As the week unfolds, volatility reigns supreme, with old all-time highs from January beckoning like a siren’s call. 🎶
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades mused that despite the last-minute recovery, Bitcoin needs a more convincing close to seal the deal for further gains. 🧐
The weekly candle closed at $109,100, just a whisper away from the January high.
“Not the most glamorous weekly candle for an all-time high break. One would expect a strong continuation, especially with the ~$2B+ in ETF inflows since breaching that previous high,” he quipped to his followers. 😏
Forecasting an “interesting week,” Daan noted the ongoing popularity of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which last week attracted a whopping $2.75 billion. 💰
$BTC is forming a bullish pennant here.
It bounced back nicely from support level, which is a good sign.
Despite $1B long position closing and low liquidity volume, bears didn’t take BTC down.
I think the next week will be good for BTC.
I can smell a new ATH again.
— Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) May 25, 2025
Others, with eyes gleaming, see new record highs on the horizon, thanks to price action reversing upward just below $107,000. 🌅
“$BTC has completed the breakout. Now it’s about follow-through,” summarized fellow trader BitBull. 🏃♂️
“Clean breakout from consolidation, retest underway. If this structure holds, the next target zone is $155K in sight — Momentum only needs a trigger.”
Bond Yields and PCE: A Tough Macro Week Ahead
The Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge highlights this week’s US macroeconomic data amid the looming threat of rising interest rates. 📈
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index print for April is due on May 29, along with initial jobless claims. 📅
These will follow the first revision of Q1 GDP, while rising bond yields loom ominously in the background. Last week’s threat of 50% trade tariffs on the EU from President Trump only added fuel to the fire. 🔥
“It’s like clockwork: President Trump delays 50% EU tariffs until July 9th. Then, the 10Y Note Yield instantly rises back above 4.55%,” noted The Kobeissi Letter in an X thread. ⏰
“Trade deals are no longer containing the bond market.”
Kobeissi described rising interest rates as Trump’s “biggest problem,” warning of a lethal combination of trade deals and high benchmark interest rates. ⚠️
“The Fed refuses to cut rates and trade deals are driving yields higher,” it summarized. 📉
The minutes of the Fed’s May meeting, where officials decided to hold rates steady, will be released this week. 🗓️
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows subdued market expectations of a rate cut this year, with no such action anticipated before the Fed’s September meeting. 💤
Exchange Signals: A Bearish Momentum?
Exchange order books are sending bearish signals as the week begins, leaving analysts scratching their heads. 🤔
In coverage of the taker buy/sell ratio, CryptoQuant announced a “strong bearish” trajectory as both buyers and sellers wind down activity. 📉
“Across centralized exchanges (CEXs), both taker buy and taker short volumes have dropped significantly,” contributor Crazzyblockk noted in a “Quicktake” blog post. 📰
“This indicates a cooling in market order aggressiveness on both sides, often a precursor to reduced short-term momentum and increased uncertainty.”
The taker buy/sell ratio tracks the ratio of buy to sell volume across takers during perpetual swap trades, and on May 25, it slid below the key level of 1 for the first time since early April. 📊
Crazzyblockk concludes that sellers are “beginning to dominate.” 🐻
“Simultaneously, 7-day price volatility is spiking, a typical signal of market inflection zones,” the blog post continued. 📈
“Current data points to a turning point in market sentiment. With buyer exhaustion growing and volatility accelerating, the likelihood of a short-term correction increases. Price action may test support near the 105K level, if bearish pressure intensifies.”
Before last week’s macro-driven price retreat, CryptoMoon reported on taker data implying a fresh round of upside thanks to strong buy-side pressure. 🌊
Hyperliquid’s Wynn: A Memecoin Adventure
Up or down, Bitcoin remains a prime target for large-volume traders entering sizable speculative positions. 🎯
As CryptoMoon continues to report, one entity in particular, Hyperliquid’s James Wynn, has flipped from long to short and back again within mere days. 🌀
While just one “whale” among many, Wynn’s moves have gained considerable attention, swaying sentiment like a pendulum. ⏳
An initial $125 billion long position was exited at a loss due to the latest US tariff headlines, only for Wynn to enter a short. This, however, lasted mere hours before he returned with another 40X leveraged long, as BTC/USD reversed higher. 🔄
Let’s reverse this double time
— James Wynn 🐳 (@JamesWynnReal) May 26, 2025
“To all the fans and haters: We had a good run gambling on perps,” Wynn announced in a subsequent X post, revealing his latest trade exits, this time in profit to the tune of $25 million. 💵
To all the fans and haters:
We had a good run gambling on perps
At peak the account was up $87,000,000 profits from like $3-$4m.
Now decided to leave the casino with my $25,000,000 profit
It’s been fun, but now it’s time for me to walk away a wynner
Wynn 1-0 Haters…
— James Wynn 🐳 (@JamesWynnReal) May 26, 2025
Monitoring his activity, analytics platform Lookonchain revealed other crypto bets, including a new long position on the popular memecoin Pepe (PEPE). 🐸
Funding Rates: The Calm Before the Storm
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s current breakout is making some market participants confident that price discovery is only beginning. 🌌
Funding rates across derivatives platforms remain fairly neutral, a similar picture to the run-up to previous all-time highs seen in late 2024. 📈
CryptoQuant data puts the cross-exchange Bitcoin funding rate at 0.006 as of May 25. 📊
“Sentiment is calm. No overleveraged longs piling in,” popular trader Jelle noted. 🧘♂️
“This is one of the healthiest Bitcoin breakouts in a long time – looks ripe to move a lot higher.”
Crypto commentator Quinten Francois described the funding rates as reflecting a “perfect setup to rip higher.” 🚀
Popular trader Crypto Eagles subsequently stated that the combination of low funding and increasing open interest (OI) should boost the odds of a short squeeze. 📈
This is something I wanted to see and it has happened.
BTC funding rate has turned negative, while OI is going up rapidly.
Interestingly, this is happening during a low liquidity Sunday dump.
Bears are getting too confident here and this always happens before a big short…
— Crypto Eagles (@CryptoProject6) May 26, 2025
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2025-05-26 13:26