In the wintery world of crypto, Bitcoin now hibernates at a lukewarm $76.8k, a far cry from the frosty peak of $80k that charmed last week. The once‑firm bullish trendline has snapped like a twig under a wandering dragon, and the price has retreated to the middle of a huge, almost whimsical ascending channel on the daily chart. At $75k, the support zone stands as an unyielding line in the sand-except this sand is made of paper and nerves.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
If you look closely, the grand ascending channel that last month seemed to guarantee a fairy‑ish finish has been dismissed. Bitcoin has flipped back inside the range and now teeters between $76k and $75k, like a nervous puppet. The 100‑day moving average bends downwards to $72k, offering a soft cushion that keeps the downside risk small. Meanwhile, the 200‑day moving average-now perched at $81k-gives gentle pressure from above, after firmly rejecting any attempt to climb higher.
The $75k support spot is where the plot thickens; it represents the most recent bullish order block and a short‑term swing low. A bounce here could be the omen that the pullback was only a temporary shrug, and that the grand uptrend is still very much ahead.
Should the price, on a sudden act of defiance, break below $75k, a further fall toward the 100‑day average and the $72k demand area will likely follow. In that case, investors will be left to wonder: had the recovery truly grown, or was it merely a tailor‑made trap for the early buyers?
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The bearish RSI divergence-an invisible hand that once guided the price above $80k-$82k highs-has manifested exactly as the pattern promised. The inner bullish trendline from April has been shattered, and the RSI has plummeted below 35, now flirting with oversold territories it hasn’t seen in months.
At the moment, the price sits near the upper edge of the $75k-$76k support zone. If it rebounds from this spot, along with a bullish RSI divergence and recoveries from those oversold levels, you might start to suspect that the correction is almost exhausted, paving the way for another surge toward $80k.
Conversely, a failure to hold $75k clears the way to the lower support area-$70k to $72k- which aligns with both the daily channel’s lower boundary and the 100‑day moving average. A fall through $75k would force the buyers into a fierce battle at $72k to keep the market from plunging deeper.
On-Chain Analysis
The Adjusted SOPR lately has bounced back from its February low of below 0.98. That reading was like a wail of despair as sellers released coins below their cost basis, slipping further down to 1.005. The metric has just crossed the critical 1.0 line that separates profitable from loss‑realizing behaviour. Historically, the crossing from below 1.0 signals a shift from bear‑market gloom to sunrise.
Still, the present reading is fragile. At 1.005, the adjusted SOPR skirts the line so closely that any meaningful price drop towards $70k-$72k could push it below 1.0 again, hinting that the recovery might stall while sellers once more harvest losses. Thus, holding the $75k support zone is not just a technical saviour but an on‑chain lifeline, keeping the narrative of recovery afloat.
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2026-05-18 19:46