Oh, Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency that’s more moody than your ex and twice as unpredictable. Turns out its next big “to the moon” moment might hinge less on blockchain magic and more on… *checks notes* personnel politics in D.C.? Yes, really. In a market note on X (because where else would we get our hot takes these days?), economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger dropped some truth bombs: this bull run is less about halving hype and more about who President Trump picks to replace Jerome Powell at the Fed. Classic chaos theory meets capitalism.
Krüger’s take? He’s confident the cycle isn’t over because he expects the new Fed chair to bring back dovish policies like it’s 2021 all over again. And no, markets aren’t ready for it yet. “Once Trump announces his nominee,” Krüger wrote, “that’s when things will start getting interesting.” Translation: strap in, folks. We’re about to see if Bitcoin can survive another round of political roulette. 🎲
But wait-there’s drama! Krüger waved off concerns that Bitcoin’s recent dip from record highs means we’ve hit peak cycle. “Oh, darling,” he seems to say, “every time there’s a correction, everyone loses their minds. AGAIN.” His critique of the whole “four-year halving cycle” thing? Brutal. “It’s dead,” he declared. “Two cycles ago. RIP.” Apparently, the last cycle ended not because Bitcoin got tired but because the Fed went full hawk-mode in early 2022. Who knew central bankers had such power?
Now, let’s talk timing. Jerome Powell’s term wraps up on May 15, 2026, but whispers from the White House suggest they’re already narrowing down candidates. Names like Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are floating around, which sounds like a law firm specializing in financial anxiety. The real question? How much chill does the next chair have? Because if they’re too hawkish, Bitcoin might just pack its bags and move to a beach somewhere. 🏖️
In the meantime, Powell’s swan song at Jackson Hole looms large. Scheduled for August 21-23, this could be the tone-setting event of the year-or at least until September’s FOMC meeting. Krüger’s betting slightly bearish here, expecting Powell to play hard-to-get with rate cuts. After all, why give Wall Street everything it wants right away? That’s just bad relationship advice. 😏
Technically speaking, Bitcoin’s been cooling off after setting fresh all-time highs earlier this summer. Traders are eyeing $112,000 as the first line of defense against a downturn, while $100,000 remains the psychological Maginot Line no one wants to cross. Krüger also pointed out that Bitcoin struggles to rally without leverage or triggers-a bit like trying to host a party without snacks or music. Derivatives data backs this up, showing suppressed volatility and cautious positioning ahead of Jackson Hole. Fancy!
The macro picture boils down to one simple idea: A dovish Fed chair = good vibes for Bitcoin. A hawkish one = cue the sad trombone. Markets love reading tea leaves, so if Trump picks someone soft on rates, expect liquidity to flow like champagne. If not, well, buckle up-it’s gonna get bumpy. 🎢
For now, the catalysts are stacking up faster than unpaid parking tickets: Powell’s speech, PCE, NFP, CPI, PPI, and then September’s FOMC. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades between clearly defined levels, waiting for its next plot twist. As Krüger put it, bull markets don’t die of natural causes-they need a major trigger. And in 2025, that trigger might just be… a name. 📝
At press time, BTC was trading at $115,683. So, you know, casual billionaire status for anyone holding since last year. No big deal. 😉
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2025-08-19 22:20