Bitcoin’s price has struggled to break through the $80,000 mark for the last two months, reaching a high of around $76,000. An analyst recently pointed out that this is happening because the price is hitting a strong resistance level.
Adjusted Realized Price Poses Resistance To Recovery Attempts
On March 28th, a cryptocurrency analyst known as Darkfost explained the reasons behind Bitcoin’s recent price drops in a post on X (formerly Twitter). They focused on a specific metric – the BTC Realized Price excluding Bitcoin held for more than seven years. This metric shows the average purchase price of currently circulating Bitcoin, but it filters out older coins likely held by long-term investors who aren’t selling (‘diamond hands’), removing potentially misleading data from lost or inactive wallets.
BTC is still unable to move back above the realized price that excludes inactive supply.
This chart shows the cost of currently available supply, excluding items that have been out of circulation for over 7 years. This helps provide a more accurate picture of what’s actively being used and traded, and it removes items that are likely lost or unusable.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 28, 2026
Currently, Bitcoin’s adjusted realized price is about $72,500. This is a price level it hasn’t been able to consistently stay above for the last two months. According to Darkfost, looking at past price patterns, this situation often signals a prolonged period of declining prices.
A market analyst notes that in past bear markets, Bitcoin has typically stayed below its purchase price for six to ten months before recovering. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price could continue to fall for several more months, even though it’s already been declining for half a year, if history repeats itself.
BTC Market Overview
At the time this was written, Bitcoin was trading at $66,629, up about 1% from the day before. While the price has remained relatively stable over the past month – down just 1.27% – more traders have been paying attention to Bitcoin, likely because of recent price swings, according to market analyst Ali Martinez.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Open Interest – the total value of active trade contracts – hit approximately $30 billion in mid-March, a record high for 2026. A significant portion of this activity is happening on the Binance exchange, where traders have added another $829 million in Open Interest recently.
Since Bitcoin’s price has been declining since October 2025, the market needs positive changes in things like the overall economy, how much money is available, and how much demand there is to start recovering. Until these conditions improve and suggest a brighter outlook, the Bitcoin market could face continued difficulties in the coming months.
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2026-03-29 23:12