Bitcoin’s Mystery Deepens: CPI & Iran Talks Could Shake It!

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What to know:

Bitcoin sits at seventy-two thousand, as if a stubborn guest lingering in a drawing room, waiting for someone to declare the evening over. Investors drift about, reluctant to commit while telegrams of geopolitics and economy flutter in the hallway.

The gentlemen of finance pretend to wager on eighty thousand through call options, yet they clutch downside protection as one clutches a shawl in a draughty corridor.

Friday’s inflation numbers and the weekend’s chatter about an Iran truce may guide the plot-perhaps even determine whether the curtain rises or falls.

Bitcoin’s price has risen a touch, nearly seven percent since Sunday, yet conviction remains a shy thing; the recovery hesitates near seventy-two thousand as binary risks nibble at the edges of the room, including Friday’s inflation report and weekend Iran talks.

The cautious mood is visible in the options market, where institutions chase the ascent through calls-the devices that let one pretend the horizon will widen-while hedges linger like an overcoated clerk in the back of the theatre.

According to QCP Capital, options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) show demand for the $45 call expiring in May. That suggests traders expect IBIT’s price to thread above that mark from the present around $40. Bitcoin options on Deribit tell a similar tale, with the $80,000 call rising as the popular bet. Yet the appetite for puts, those modest defenders against misfortune, persists.

“IBIT options showed sustained open interest in the May 45 call, holding above 80k+ contracts through the week, while downside hedging remained in place via puts and long-dated protection. The combination reflects a market participating in upside, but not abandoning hedges,” the Singapore-based trading firm, which is one of the world’s largest crypto market makers, said in an email.

The persistent demand for protection against declines also appears in the options skew, which measures the price difference between calls and puts, and remains negative across all time frames. That signals a lingering bias toward put options.

“The skew picture is clear: institutions are buying downside protection and selling upside calls. After the Iran headlines, some tail risk has been priced out, so skew has eased, but the underlying flow remains one-directional. Demand for puts, supply of calls,” Maxime Seiler, CEO of STS Digital, a principal trading firm specializing in digital asset derivatives, told CoinDesk.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for March is expected to show inflation creeping higher, above 3% in annual terms, driven largely by rising energy prices.

That is hardly surprising given the Iran conflict has sent oil and gasoline prices skittering upward. Yet volatility could intensify if the core figure-stripping food and energy-surges past the annualized 2.7% estimate. Such a result would buttress the case for Federal Reserve rate increases, seemingly weighing on risk assets like BTC.

Beyond CPI, the weekend meeting between Iranian and U.S. delegates in Pakistan may hold the key to market stability. BTC’s rally may accelerate if they can stop the fighting and restore the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The first hints might arrive via Hyperliquid-listed oil perpetual futures. Stay vigilant, or at least pretend to be.

Today’s signal

The chart shows swings in the ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE), a measure of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures.

Sharp spikes in the index hint at rising doubt about inflation, interest rates, or macro shocks. Treasuries anchor the globe of finance, and when they tremble, stocks, credits, and crypto may shuffle in their seats.

The MOVE index spiked in March, rising to 115% from 73% only to drift back to 74% this month. It suggests the world’s most important bond market has calmed, a green light for crypto bulls who enjoy a quiet room more than a crowded parlor.

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

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2026-04-10 14:33