Bitcoin’s Mood Swings: Why Is Everyone Crying in the Crypto Playground?

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Markets

What to know:

  • So, Bitcoin decided to hit the snooze button and dropped 1.5% from its glorious overnight high. I mean, how rude! Last week it couldn’t even reclaim $94,700, which really solidifies its new hobby of showing lower highs since October. 🙄
  • The CoinDesk 20? Let’s just say it’s had a rough night, losing 1.6% since midnight UTC. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is flexing its muscles with a rise in dominance, leaving poor altcoins in the dust. 😢
  • On average, the crypto RSI is sitting at a comfy 38.49, meaning the market feels a bit oversold. It could be due for a short-term relief rally, if only someone would send in a rescue boat! ⛵️

The crypto market slipped overnight, with Bitcoin slipping down the proverbial rabbit hole, dropping 1.5% from its early Wednesday high. Not exactly the comeback story we were hoping for!

And guess what? The broader market followed suit like a sad puppy. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) fell 1.6% since midnight UTC, with every member feeling the burn. Ouch! 😬

After failing to break above $94,700 last week, Bitcoin’s sell-off has turned into an extended downtrend, much like my attempts at a diet-lots of lower highs and no visible results since early October!

If Bitcoin wants to bounce back and prove it’s still got some fight left, it needs to get back above $95,000, and ideally hit the magical $98,000. But alas, year-end catalysts are playing hard to get. 🎭

But wait! Much of the market is “oversold” according to the average crypto relative strength index (RSI), which is currently at 38.49 out of 100. This could mean a potential short-term relief rally, or maybe just a short nap. 😴

Derivatives positioning

  • BTC‘s 30-day implied volatility, courtesy of Volmex’s BVIV, is playing it cool below an annualized 50%. Market calm before the storm of Thursday’s U.S. inflation data and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision. How thrilling! 🎢
  • BTC’s 90-day historical volatility is now doing the tango with major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia. Market maturation? Sounds fancy! 💃
  • BTC/USD longs on Bitfinex have reached their highest levels since February. Someone’s feeling optimistic! 💪
  • Open interest (OI) in futures tied to most tokens, including BTC and Ether, has taken a little vacation over the past 24 hours. BCH, UNI, and NEAR are the overachievers, with moderate increases in OI. Go team! 🏆
  • On Deribit, there’s put writing at Bitcoin’s $85,000 strike and call writing at $95,000 and $100,000 strikes. Looks like traders are preparing for a wild ride, folks! 🎠
  • Block flows are featuring straddles and risk reversals in BTC and call calendar spreads in Ether. Sounds complicated but also kinda cool, right? 🤓
  • Overall, BTC and ETH puts are still pricier than calls, indicating that there’s a persistent fear lurking in the shadows. Cue the horror movie music! 🎶

Token talk

  • The altcoin market? Let’s just say it’s not winning any popularity contests against Bitcoin trading pairs. Bitcoin dominance is up to 58.7%, which is a big deal considering it was only 57.8% on Nov. 26. Who’s counting, right? 📈
  • ASTER and TAO are the two worst-performing altcoins in the top 100, with declines of 6.5% and 6.1% since midnight UTC. Yikes! Someone get them a therapist! 💔
  • ASTER’s plunge is extending its bearish trend, plunging more than 20% since Monday. Looks like the hype around BNB Chain derivatives exchanges is officially over. Bye-bye, party! 🎉
  • Yet, there’s a sprinkle of hope with a few bullish outliers. Monero is up by 0.2% since midnight, and Cardano’s privacy token, NIGHT, decided to party with a rise of over 5% mid-morning in Europe. Keep shining, you gems! ✨
  • The “altcoin season” indicator is sitting at a dismal 19/100, proving that the market remains firmly focused on Bitcoin since the liquidation wipeout in October. Sounds like a bad breakup! 😬

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2025-12-17 14:59