Bitcoin’s 4-Cycle Cracks: 2026 Could Be a Wild Free-for-All!

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Key Takeaways

What’s about to blow up the BTC cycle? 🤯

Apparently, ETFs and treasury hogs are shaking things up so much that Bitcoin‘s usual dance steps are looking more like a wild mosh pit. Market tradition? Who needs that? Not these guys.

And if the cycle bites the dust? 🦇

Hold on tight, because if the old pattern’s gone, 2026 might just turn into the crypto version of open season. Think of it as Bitcoin’s ‘lord of the flies’ moment, but with fewer flies and more dollar signs.

So, how did Bitcoin, our favorite digital diva, top out and then do the cha-cha into a bear market without causing any of its usual red flags? 📉

Crypto Twitter-aka the chaotic coffee shop of the internet-can’t agree. Especially after BTC dipped below its 365-day Daily Moving Average, whispering, “I’m not your typical bullish babe anymore.”

Now, the big question: is this the end of the 4-year party? Hunter Horsley, Bitwise’s boss, and Tom Lee, the sage of FundStrat, are waving their hands like they’re at a street parade. They say: “The old cycle? It’s toast.”

Horsley even warned that folks sold in 2025 to dodge the “2026 dump,” but guess what? That could turn 2025 into a total flop year, breaking the cycle like a cheap vase. And 2026? Well, that’s a big, juicy open season for whatever comes next.

“Second-order effect: the 2025 sellers cause 2025 to be a down year, thus breaking the 4-year cycles. Third-order effect: 2026 is open season. 4-year cycles broken.”

Lee agrees, saying, “Yeah, factors are shifting away from the good old 4-year rhythm for BTC and ETH.” Looks like the crystal ball is cloudier than a London street.

“Cogent points, I agree that factors shifting away from 4-year cycle for BTC, ETH.”

What’s actually driving this chaotic BTC carnival? 🎢

Here’s the scoop: Until now, Bitcoin’s cycles were all stitched together around halving events-like a superhero cape, but every four years or so.

2022’s phase? Less glam, only +600% gain, which is like winning the lottery but with a lot less drama. Still, it matched up pretty well to its predecessors-until now.

However, new players-ETFs, treasuries-are in the mix, making the scene more “mature,” and with maturity comes… diminishing returns. Fun, right? Not so much.

And let’s not forget the indicator crowd. MVRV Z-Score? Usually peaks at market tops. But now? It’s acting like a shy kid in a classroom-totally ignoring the usual signs.

If we hit $126k, some are saying it’s the peak, but the indicator’s just sitting there, twiddling its thumbs-no fireworks, no fireworks.

Meanwhile, Satoshi Flipper-yes, that’s a real Twitter handle-chips in that it’s mostly US business cycles driving this chaos, not halving. Looks like liquidity growth is now the new kid on the block, ladies and gentlemen.

One thing’s for sure: the yearly finale and the 2026 show will decide if BTC decided to throw the old script out the window or if we’re just in a plot twist.

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2025-11-17 20:45