Bitcoin, that most capricious of digital phantoms, teeters on the precipice of a 2025 red-letter year, its fate hinging on a mere $94k. 🎯
A 5.7% plunge, a veritable hemorrhage of value in the calendar year of 2025. While the U.S. equities market danced to new heights, Bitcoin languished, its charm waning like a forgotten lullaby. 🎄
Traders, those weary gamblers of the market, now tread with the caution of a cat on a hot tin roof, fearing the ghost of 2025’s muted performance might haunt January’s first days. 🐱
Near-term BTC caution
Leavitas, that arbiter of market whims, reveals that short-term positioning suggests a turbulent sea, with sophisticated players favoring the safety of downside protection. 🌊
The 1-week 25-Delta Risk Reversal, that orange beacon of market sentiment, plummeted, a harbinger of renewed demand for hedging, or, in simpler terms, bearish bets. 🚩
Indeed, all tenors from 1 week to 1 year wore the pallor of pessimism, as institutions, ever the cautious voyeurs, opted for insurance over speculation. 🧭
For a flicker of optimism, the 25-Delta RR must flirt with 0 or, dare we dream, turn positive. A mere wish, perhaps, but one clung to by the desperate. 🤞
QCP Capital, that Singaporean oracle, whispers that BTC’s direction may emerge once liquidity returns. A promise as fleeting as a mirage in the desert. 🏜️
“With open interest down 50% post-expiry (Dec 26), conviction remains as sparse as a desert’s dunes. Capital is sidelined, and direction likely waits for liquidity to return.”
Institutional BTC demand wanes
The Options market’s caution mirrors the institutional demand’s retreat, a silent exodus of capital, as if the market itself were holding its breath. 🫁
The $5.5 billion ETF outflows, a record since 2024, were fueled by hedge funds, ever the opportunists, bailing after a lucrative basis trade yield halved from 10% to 5%. 🚀
Yet, despite the Q4 drawdown, ETF inflows remain stubbornly resilient, a testament to long-term conviction. Or perhaps, just stubbornness. 🤷♂️
The Q4 rout, accelerated by the 10 October crash and MSCI’s treacherous index review, leaves BTC pinned below $90k, a prisoner of its own inertia. 🛡️
The $94k resistance, that elusive dream, looms like a mirage, its promise as fleeting as a snowflake in a desert. ❄️
Final Thoughts
- Option traders, those sly gamblers of the market, bet that the BTC sell-off might have eased, yet the price range of $85k-$94k could stretch into 2026, a cruel tease of a new year. 🎄
- ETF outflows reached a record $5.5 billion in Q4 2025, yet long-term conviction has remained-perhaps a testament to human folly. 🤯
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2025-12-30 08:14