Bitcoin Treasury Firms in a Spot of Bother

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It appears that the Bitcoin treasury strategy, once the cat’s pajamas, may be on its last legs, old chap. According to Glassnode lead analyst James Check, the easy upside may already be behind new companies entering the space, and the whole shebang may be nothing more than a flash in the pan. 🤔

“My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,” Check said in an X post on Friday, no doubt sending shockwaves through the crypto community. 😱

A Grim Outlook for New Entrants

“For many new entrants, it could already be over,” Check said, adding that it’s not about a “measuring contest” but rather how sustainable a company’s product and strategy are when it comes to long-term Bitcoin accumulation. In other words, it’s not just about who can hold the most Bitcoin, but who can do it without going bust. 💸

Check said it’s becoming an uphill battle for newer Bitcoin treasury firms as investors favor the early adopters. “Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” Check said, rather bluntly. 🙅‍♂️

“I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche.”

Despite this, at least 21 entities added Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the 30-day period up until Friday, according to BitcoinTreasuries data. The largest public Bitcoin treasury, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), holds a whopping 597,325 BTC, while the second-largest, MARA Holdings, holds a mere 50,000 BTC — approximately one-twelfth as much. 🤯

Check said startup Bitcoin treasury firms attract retail speculators — but warns they don’t “have infinite money.” A rather obvious statement, one would think, but apparently not to some of these firms. 🤑

Check admitted it’s hard to put a time limit on the downturn for the newer firms, as he is “bullish” on Bitcoin’s price, which is trading at $107,990 at the time of publication, approximately 3.70% off its $111,970 all-time high, according to CoinMarketCap data. 📈

“It’s a spectrum,” he said, explaining that, for example, Strategy has more runway than the 300th Bitcoin treasury company to enter the market. A rather diplomatic way of saying that some firms are in a spot of bother, if you ask me. 😊

Check said he agreed with Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wizardheimer’s view that some companies are using a Bitcoin treasury strategy as a way to make quick profits, without fully understanding its long-term purpose. A rather cynical view, perhaps, but not entirely unfounded, it seems. 🤑

The Weak Ones May Get Gobbled Up

“Many of the folks raising just see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” Wizardheimer said, rather bluntly. 🙄

“I think it’ll take them some time to figure out,” he said, adding:

“The weak ones might be acquired at a discount by the strong ones, and the trend could still have a few more legs in it.”

Recently, several doubts have emerged over firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Venture capital firm Breed argued in a June 29 report that only a few Bitcoin treasury companies will stand the test of time and avoid the vicious “death spiral” that will impact BTC holding companies that trade close to net asset value (NAV). A rather dire prediction, if you ask me. 😱

On June 11, Fakhul Miah, managing director of GoMining Institutional, told CryptoMoon what concerns him most are “the copycats.” Ah, yes, the copycats — always a problem in any industry, it seems. 🙄

“There are now other companies trying to create Bitcoin banks without proper safeguards or risk management. If these smaller firms crash, we could see a ripple effect that hurts Bitcoin’s image,” Miah said, rather sensibly, if you ask me. 💡

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2025-07-05 05:36