Bitcoin: To Invest or Not to Invest?

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Ah, the eternal conundrum of the modern age: should one invest in Bitcoin? 🤑 The cognoscenti, it seems, are divided on the matter. Recent analyses suggest that retail investors have yet to return to the crypto market, despite Bitcoin’s dizzying ascent to new heights. But is it wise to join the fray now that it has entered the rarefied realm of six-figure territory? 🤔

According to the calculations of the indefatigable Bitbo, a retail investor who had invested a modest $1,000 per month in Bitcoin over the past two years would have accumulated a tidy 0.4588 BTC, yielding a return of 114.8%. A handsome profit, to be sure, but one that raises the question: what if this strategy were to commence now, with Bitcoin already priced above $100,000? 🤑

One intrepid investor, a certain Steve, has announced his intention to invest $1,000 per month in Bitcoin throughout Trump’s presidential term. A bold move, indeed, and one that raises the question: could this signal a broader movement of retail investors preparing to flood into Bitcoin? 🌟

Can’t believe I’m saying this because I’m not a Bitcoin guy, but I’ve decided to invest $1,000 a month into Bitcoin for the foreseeable future.

Great diversification, and so long as Trump’s in office, I don’t see any major downsides to crypto-based investments.

— Steve · Millionaire Habits (@SteveOnSpeed) July 14, 2025

Jake Claver, managing director at Digital Ascension Group, believes this is the worst possible time for such a strategy. “This is the cycle top,” he warns. “Might have 10% left in it before the next bear market. You should DCA at the bottom of the bear market. Buying anything other than BTC in crypto right now would be better, prior to Alt season. The rotation out of BTC has already started.” 😬

Udi Wertheimer, a well-known crypto investor on X, holds a different view. “The most expensive mistake you can make is refusing to buy Bitcoin at $120,000 because you sold it at $30,000,” he counsels. “Me and my friends sold all our Bitcoin at $100 and only started buying back around $500–$1,000. You think we’re losing sleep over it? Don’t be stupid. Do whatever you need to trick yourself out of that attitude. We’re going so much higher, it’s not going to matter that you missed 4x along the way.” 🚀

Only time will tell whether Steve’s strategy works. However, the debates surrounding this DCA approach highlight two opposing forces in the market. One side remains cautious, anchored in past cycles. The other embraces current momentum and positive signals. 🤝

The “Final Dance” Before a Peak?

Data from CryptoQuant offers a more optimistic perspective. A recent analysis by Joohyun Ryu on the platform suggests that Bitcoin hasn’t yet entered the euphoria stage typical of past market tops. Instead, he believes we might be in the early phase of what he calls “the last dance”—a period of strong growth before the final peak. 💃

This view is based on the “Greed Indicator,” which is still at moderate levels, far below the peak in 2021. Ryu also points to the rHODL ratio, currently at just 32%. “A representative example is the rHODL ratio, currently positioned at a modest 32%,” he explains. “This metric, traditionally indicative of long-term holder behavior and the distribution of wealth across different investor cohorts, suggests a continued reluctance among retail participants (often referred to as ‘prawns’ in market vernacular) to fully engage with the market. Historically, periods of true market euphoria have been characterized by substantial inflows from retail investors, a dynamic not yet prominently observed.” 📊

If Ryu is correct, Steve’s decision could be smart—an effort to capitalize before Bitcoin potentially surges to new highs. What remains, however, is the crucial question: when is the right time to exit, before the next bear market sets in? 🕰️

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2025-07-15 12:01