What to know:
- Bitcoin is fewer than 100,000 blocks from its next halving in April 2028, when the mining reward is set to drop from 3.125 to 1.5625 bitcoins per block.
- Historically, bitcoin bear markets have tended to end 12 to 18 months before a halving, implying a potential bottom as early as October.
- One observer sees $76,000-$77,000 as critical support for BTC, with a clean break lower potentially opening the way to the $70,000–$72,000 area and then $60,000.
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.
The Bitcoin network is getting closer to its next ‘halving’ event, which happens roughly every four years and reduces the reward miners receive for creating new blocks. With less than 100,000 blocks remaining until the halving, even those predicting a price drop (bears) should pay attention, despite current market conditions.
To understand why this number matters, it’s helpful to know what a ‘block’ is. The Bitcoin blockchain is like a shared, public record book that keeps track of every Bitcoin transaction ever made. People called ‘miners’ compete to add groups of transactions to this record, and they get rewarded with new bitcoins for doing so. Roughly every 10 minutes, a new group of transactions – a ‘block’ – is added, and miners currently earn 3.125 Bitcoin each time.
In roughly two years, around April 12, 2028, the amount will decrease by half to 1.5625 BTC, according to the current block count.
This is significant because Bitcoin price drops usually bottom out 12 to 18 months before the next halving event. Based on this pattern, a recovery could start as soon as October, according to experienced trader Peter Brandt.
This suggests that bears – those predicting falling prices – could stay in control of the market for the next few months. Several factors, including high oil prices, rising interest rates, and money leaving exchange-traded funds, could cause prices to fall further in the short term.
Jean-David Péquignot, from Deribit, says that Bitcoin’s price is currently being strongly supported around $76,000 to $77,000. If the price falls below this range, it could drop further.
He told CoinDesk that if the price falls cleanly to a certain point, it could reach between $70,000 and $72,000. The next significant support level to watch below that is $60,000. Traders should remain vigilant.
Today’s signal
The interest rate on Japan’s 10-year government bond has been increasing rapidly, with a pattern similar to the quick surges seen in cryptocurrencies like DOGE and SHIB during early 2021.
The recent strong increase is leading some to predict that Japanese investors will sell their investments abroad and bring the money back to Japan, which could increase the value of the yen.
This situation could cause prices to fluctuate in various markets. Attendees at a recent Hong Kong conference mentioned that alternative cryptocurrencies might also decrease in value.
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2026-05-19 14:36