Bitcoin‘s price briefly fell below the key $69,000 support level, but then recovered. It dipped again, but bounced back from that same level. Now, the question is whether buyers can push the price up around $4,600 to reach a new high, signaling a potential shift in the overall trend, or if sellers will take control.
One last rally still left in the bulls?
Bitcoin’s price has been moving sideways with small upward fluctuations for several weeks. The main challenge for those hoping for a price increase seems to be a specific downward trend line, which is acting as a significant barrier.
Can Bitcoin’s price recover despite the current downward trend? It’s possible, but it would likely require some significant positive news to reverse the overall decline.
If the price increases significantly, it might reach a new high, but this would likely only bring it back to the upper boundary of the current bearish pattern. At that point, weakening buying pressure would probably cause the price to fall again. This increase would likely be the final attempt to break through the resistance before the price is definitively pushed down, potentially leading to a larger drop soon after.
A breakdown still the most likely scenario
The daily chart isn’t encouraging. The 200-day moving average is falling sharply, and this is a more significant drop than we’ve seen in a long time. The last similar decline, which was brief and less steep, happened briefly during a rally in 2024, suggesting the current trend could lead to further price decreases.
Looking at the chart, the RSI line has fallen below its recent upward trend, briefly returned to test that level, and now appears to be continuing downward.
While the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) could potentially rise again to the upper boundary of the current bearish pattern, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests it may struggle to break through the 70.00 level, which has historically capped price increases. Considering existing resistance levels, a significant breakout doesn’t seem likely this time.
Could RSI signal a major rally?
Looking at the weekly chart, the 200-week Simple Moving Average has usually acted as a floor during past bear markets. However, during the most recent bear market, the price briefly dropped below this level for about seven months. If this happens again, we could see Bitcoin’s price fall to around $48,000 or $40,000, as these are the strongest potential support levels.
Interestingly, looking at past market behavior could offer some insight. If we examine the last significant bull market and its Relative Strength Index (RSI), we see a pattern: whenever the RSI line moved above a downward trend line, it often signaled the start of a substantial price increase.
Notice the current downward trend line. The indicator is barely breaking above it. However, this line seems a bit unreliable compared to previous ones, almost like a false signal. Perhaps it hasn’t been drawn accurately?
Putting all the guesswork aside, the price needs to clearly move above the recent downward trend line by the end of the week. If that happens, it could signal a positive turn for buyers.
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2026-03-25 14:12