Bitcoin HODLers: The Unyielding Guardians of $11B – Will Their Patience Pay Off? 😏💰

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  • Ah, the realized profits have reached a modest 104,000 BTC—oh, how far we are from the 350,000 BTC threshold that heralds market tops!
  • BTC may find itself consolidating around $104,000, but if the winds of sentiment remain favorable, a glorious reclaim of $110,000 could be on the horizon.

Just a mere couple of days ago, Bitcoin [BTC] soared to a new all-time high of $112,000. Quite the spectacle, wouldn’t you agree?

Typically, when the value ascends, one would expect holders and investors to sell and bask in their profits. For instance, when BTC first breached the $100,000 mark in 2024, profit-taking surged like a summer storm, with realized amounts hitting a staggering $2.1 billion.

Yet, this time, dear reader, the behavior has taken a curious turn.

Investors hold tight, even with billions in unrealized gains

Despite the recent price rally, our steadfast holders and investors are not engaging in the usual profit-taking frenzy. In fact, both whales and retailers seem to have developed a rather peculiar aversion to realizing their profits.

According to a CryptoQuant analyst—who, I assure you, is not just a figment of our imagination—realized profits stand at a rather impressive 104,000 BTC (approximately $11 billion).

While this may appear significant, previous cycles have boasted far grander sums. The current levels remain a considerable distance from the critical threshold of 350,000 BTC.

Indeed, BTC has an additional 246,000 BTC of realized profit headroom before we see any historical red flags waving in the distance.

It seems only natural that this gap suggests investors are clinging to their coins like a child to a favorite toy, rather than selling into strength.

SOPR decline confirms a shift in BTC sentiment

Supporting this thesis is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)—a metric that has declined for five consecutive days, even as prices reached the lofty heights of $112,000.

Even amidst the euphoria of another all-time high, the SOPR has taken a nosedive, suggesting that holders, despite being in profit, are resolutely refusing to sell.

This decline in profit-taking is observed among both whales and retail traders, as if they’ve all decided to join a secret club of HODLers.

According to CryptoQuant data, our whale friends are still HODLing, their activity remaining comfortably within the neutral zone.

During the previous rally, whale inflows to exchanges exceeded $1 billion. Today? A mere $300 million. Oh, how the mighty have fallen!

This is a remarkably low level, especially since BTC is enjoying favorable conditions and has entered the discovery phase. Thus, our large holders are biding their time, waiting for more upside before they unleash their selling frenzy.

Spent volume and exchange flows reinforce the picture

While a price surge typically heralds higher profit-taking activity, this cycle has taken a rather unexpected turn.

Investors are behaving differently this time, choosing not to sell and take profits, which indicates a newfound confidence. Consequently, the total Volume Spent by Age has decreased by $1.1 billion during this price rally compared to the last cycle. Quite the twist, wouldn’t you say?

Simultaneously, Exchange Netflow remains largely negative.

Investors are withdrawing more BTC than they are depositing—a clear signal that accumulation is triumphing over distribution. A curious state of affairs, indeed!

What comes next for Bitcoin?

In simple terms, participants across the markets remain bullish, eagerly anticipating further price ascents. Thus, the prevailing market conditions seem to position BTC for even greater gains.

A continuation of these sentiments may very well see BTC reclaim the $100,000 mark once again.

However, should the tariff talk persist, which has seen BTC dip to a low of $106,000, we might witness another consolidation, with a low of $104,000 looming on the horizon.

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2025-05-25 04:12