ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Quarterly, darling, maintains that the bottom has not yet slipped into its opera, even as the long-term high-rollers did their bit and absorbed roughly 1.47 million BTC during Q1’s 22% swoon.
The Q1 2026 Bitcoin Quarterly, data through March 31, reveals a delicious paradox: bearish price action on the surface, while high-conviction collectors accumulate with a fervour that would make a debutante blush.
Whales Stack Supply at a 2020-Era Pace
ARK’s figures reveal supply held by conviction buyers leaping from 2.13 million BTC to 3.60 million BTC in a mere trio of months. A 69% leap, darling, and the fastest absorption since the 2020 cycle.
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That buying into a brisk price decline mirrors the old theatre tricks-long-term holders swallowing the panic like canapés at a gala. ARK insists the pace proves sturdy-handed players view the drawdown as a proper opportunity.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) balances reinforce the mood, closing March near 1.29 million BTC and staying delightfully flat quarter over quarter.
“Such stability suggests that institutional conviction remains intact, darling, even amid a touch of downside volatility,” the report reads.
Why Bitcoin Has Not Hit Bottom Yet
Bitcoin closed Q1 near $68,200 after sauntering past three major on-chain supports. The 200-day moving average at $90,613, the short-term holder cost basis at $82,767, and the on-chain mean at $78,039 all decided to bow.
In addition, the supply in profit compressed from 78% to 50% before staging a dignified recovery. Yet it never dipped below the supply in loss-a line in the sand that often signals a deep-value capitulation.
ARK places the true downside zone between the realized price near $54,000 and the investor price near $50,000. A break into that range has historically flagged a high-conviction global bottom, but neither threshold was breached in Q1.
Previously, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, told BeInCrypto his base case places the cycle trough in October 2026.
“The base case is simple: it’ll bottom when the other two cycles bottom-roughly a year after the most probable top, which is October 2026,” he offers with impeccable restraint.
Not every maestro of markets agrees. Grayscale argues Bitcoin may have found its durable floor between $65,000 and $70,000.
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2026-04-24 08:55