Will Solana’s January 2026 Dance Be a Waltz or a Waltz Gone Wrong? 😜

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The Solana price, much like a capricious sprite, has slipped about 12% in the preceding thirty days. As 2026 tiptoes closer, its chart-caught in a sultry tango between optimism and pessimism-tempts our fancies. Some indicators, the charming sycophants, whisper promises of a January rebound, yet others, the stern critics, suggest that pressures might persist should the momentum fail to grace our stage.

History’s Passions and ETF Gazes Diverge

January has perennially been a generous suitor for Solana. Its average yield-near 59%-dresses to impress, flaunting gains around a more modest median of 22%. Indeed, this pattern becomes more sharply defined when the red of December bids adieu.

In a retrospective waltz from 2022, SOL took a dip (29.6%) in December, only to pirouette magnificently (140%) in January 2023. Come December 2024, it fell back (20.5%), but a January 2025 resurgence brought it up (22.3%). This month’s ditty, down a demure 6.94%, offers statistical encouragement for a potential rebound.

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ETF data punctuates this idea with elegance. Since inception, Solana’s spot ETFs have deftly avoided a singular week of net outflows. The latest week’s endeavors added $13.14 million (an encore is possible), elevating cumulative inflows to a sum of $755.77 million. Such unwavering demand heralds a selective esteem for SOL amidst a backdrop where many other luminaries suffer withdrawals.

B2BinPay’s sage analytics ensemble unfolds its insight into what this performance signifies for Solana and the grander market, in a lively exchange with BeInCrypto:

“Investors take no mass departure from the venerable realms of Bitcoin and Ethereum into the brambles of altcoins. They choose instead a select cadre of tokens, whose liquidity flows are navigable, where the clasp of risk remains gently in hand, permitting a graceful exit should the need arise. It is a sole few like Solana or XRP which bask in inflows, whilst the market at large remains a hushed shadow. These currents into Solana are not to be mistaken for an impending rebirth of the altseason’s glory. Such elegances are narrow and markedly discriminative,” they surmise.

This supports the narrative of SOL’s ascendant ETF inflows, yet it simultaneously counsels against composing this narrative as a prelude to a grand altseason ensemble.

Chart’s Sonnet Suggests Change, Though EMAs and Derivatives Pose Their Dilemma

In the realm of two-day charts, the SOL canvas painted a lower low from the days of November 21 to December 17, while the RSI (a measure of momentum as mercurial as a tempest) danced to form a higher low. Such a bullish divergence, like a hopeful glance, suggests an impending reversal if buyers indeed concur.

Idyll though it might seem, a bearish specter lingers nearby.

In this timeframe, the 100-period EMA (an indicator that reacts more acutely to price movements) stands on the cusp of drowning beneath the 200-period EMA. Should this ominous cross materialize, the stage may be set for persistence in the downside tumult into the late December or dawning January, delaying recovery until this star-crossed pairing reverses. Until we observe the circumvention or reversal of this intertwining, the technical tableau remains as split as a Shakespearean drama.

Derivatives posture reveals extra caution. On Hyperliquid, it is observed that nearly every trader bracket painted their positions in shorts over a span of seven days. Leading accounts, revered ‘smart money’, along with whales of Solana progeny, too, adorned shorts. Despite this, some ensembles-smarts, celebrities, and perpetual victors-whisper of unfurling longs, very possibly in anticipation of an opulent January of 2026, twinkling in the fabric of time as recounted before.

This symphony finds itself in harmonic equipoise. While momentum softly hints of a reversal being composed, EMAs and derivatives temper the narrative with awaited patience. Should Solana seek to choreograph a successful January waltz, she must sway the derivative sentiments away from shorts, all whilst deftly avoiding an EMA cross.

Key Notes on Solana’s Melodic Price: $129 As the Prelude, $116 As the Aria of Failure

SOL, a delicate tune against $124, whispers the potential for a transformative refrain should two days see it ascend above $129. Such strength would clear the stage for a potential $150 crescendo, and beyond, to a thrilling forte of $171 if ETF inflows hold their note and RSI momentum crescendos. A cost-basis heat map spells out why $129 plays the maestro; a cluster of supply, firm in its station between $123 and $124, stands challenged. A herald over $129 dances past these barriers, lifting the specter of overhead resistance with grace. Beyond it, the spectrum of supply thins down to the notes of $165 to $167, serenading the likelihood of progression if volume arrives as promised.

In theverse, the aria of $116 marks the fail-safe. Its breach slots into Solana’s historical lore of ‘red December, green January,’ rewriting it with a solitary, unyielding downward trajectory. Should the dark harbinger of a bearish EMA crossover break through, accompanied by a decrescendo below $116, expectations for January will be needled anew.

Presently, the dance of Solana is admired through the lens of twin thresholds. Rise above $129 and in trilling notes, SOL may nudge toward $150 and $171. Descend below $116, the spell of January’s customary elegance may be broken, leaving buyers to wade in a pensive allegro of uncertainty.

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2025-12-29 05:25