XRP: Stuck in a Rut or Poised for Glory? 🤑💤

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While Bitcoin and Ethereum are off gallivanting to the moon, poor old XRP is stuck in the financial equivalent of a traffic jam on the M25. 🚗💨 Since mid-November, it’s been trapped in a trading range so tight, it makes a sardine can look spacious.

Meanwhile, some clever on-chain metric-let’s call it the “dormancy doodad”-has hit a three-month high. 🌟 Normally, this would be the crypto equivalent of a starting pistol for a price rally. But XRP? It’s just sitting there, sipping tea and wondering where the party is. 🍵🤔 Let’s dive into this financial farce, shall we?

Dormancy Hits a High, But Long-Term Holders Are Having a Garage Sale 🏠🛍️

The drama begins with “spent coins,” which is crypto-speak for “how many old XRP tokens are changing hands.” This number has plummeted from 186.36 million XRP on November 15 to a measly 16.32 million XRP now. That’s a 91% drop-the kind of nosedive that would make even a lemming blush. 😳

When older tokens stop moving, selling pressure drops faster than a lead balloon. This is why dormancy-which goes up when spent coins go down-is now at its strongest in three months. Under normal circumstances, this would be the green light for XRP to flex its muscles. 💪 But nope. XRP is more interested in napping than rallying. 😴

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The problem? The so-called “conviction groups” are doing the exact opposite of what they should. It’s like they’re in a financial version of the Ministry of Silly Walks. 🦵🤪

HODL Waves-which track how much XRP is held by different age groups-show that older holders are distributing like it’s going out of fashion. The 6-12 month cohort has dropped from 26.18% to 21.65%. The 1-2 year group has fallen from 9.34% to 8.61%. Even the 2-3 year gang has eased from 14.58% to 14.12%. It’s like they’re having a fire sale, but nobody’s buying. 🔥💸

These groups are the backbone of trend strength-they’re the ones who rarely sell. But when they do, it’s like the wind has been taken out of XRP’s sails. 🌬️⛵

Even recent whale buying-which we covered earlier-hasn’t been enough to lift XRP. Whales are diving in, but the older holders are bailing out faster than passengers on the Titanic. 🛳️🐳 Until these long-term holders stop selling, dormancy alone can’t spark a breakout.

XRP Needs to Break $2.28-Or It’s Back to the Drawing Board ✏️📉

The chart tells the same story: a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with neither side willing to budge. Since November 15, XRP has been stuck between $2.28 and $1.81. It’s like it’s trapped in a financial version of Groundhog Day. 🦔🗓️

To break free, XRP needs to close above $2.28. If it does, the next targets are $2.56 and $2.69-areas where XRP has shown some spine in the past. But if it closes below $1.98, it’s back to square one, with a return to $1.81 looking likely. 🕳️💸

So, the message is clear: dormancy is high, spent coins are low, but long-term holders are still selling like there’s no tomorrow. Until these conviction groups stop their garage sale and XRP closes above $2.28, it’s stuck in this range. 🛑🚀

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2025-12-04 11:27