Japan’s $110B Stimulus: How It’s Ruining Bitcoin (and My Life)

by

Key Takeaways

Why is the crypto market under pressure heading into 2026?

Macro headwinds so strong, they could knock a penguin off its tush. 🐻‍❄️

How is Japan influencing U.S markets?

Japan’s $110 billion stimulus and record 40-year bond yields are setting a precedent for the Fed, which is now trying to keep up with a toddler on a sugar rush. 🍬

Macro-wise, the U.S economy feels all over the place right now. Take Nvidia’s [NVDA] earnings, for example – $200 billion in annualized returns should have been a major bullish catalyst. And yet, the market still sold off. Like a disgruntled raccoon with a bad hair day. 🐾

However, it’s not just the crypto market. U.S equities also saw heavy losses. The S&P500, for instance, wiped out $2 trillion and Nvidia went from +6% to -3%, even after reporting $55 billion in a risk-off environment. Because nothing says “I’m not worried” like a stock that can’t decide if it’s happy or sad. 😅

In short, this market weakness has been driven by macro FUD. In fact, the bigger pressure seems to be coming out of East Asia, which in turn is shaping a blueprint for what could hit the crypto market next. Like a bad haircut, but with more volatility. 💸

Rising yields warn against excessive fiscal stimulus

Countries around the world are sitting on massive debt loads right now. 

However, Japan tops the chart. Its government debt-to-GDP ratio is around 230%, the highest globally. Put simply, Japan owes more than $2 for every $1 it produces, making it the most “indebted” country in the world. Like a friend who always borrows money but never pays back. 🧾

On top of that, Japan’s finance minister recently rolled out a $110 billion stimulus to combat inflation, which hit 3% in October. The plan is aimed at boosting buyer spending. The result? Japan’s 40-year bond yield surged to a record 3.77%. Because nothing says “I’m serious” like a bond yield that’s higher than a kangaroo on a trampoline. 🦘

Notably, the impact of this move has investors turning bearish. Because nothing says “I’m pessimistic” like a market that’s more cautious than a toddler in a library. 📚

Rising debt, paired with spiking government bond yields, is sucking capital out of risk assets. That leaves the Bank of Japan stuck. Cut rates and you risk fueling inflation, hold steady and markets stay under pressure. Like a parent trying to please both kids at a birthday party. 🎉

Right now, 53% of participants are betting on a rate hike at December’s BOJ meeting. And, the market is already pricing in potential moves. At the same time, Japan’s moves are setting a benchmark for the Federal Reserve, putting extra pressure on the crypto market. Because the Fed is now playing catch-up with a toddler who’s already mastered quantum physics. 🧠

Crypto market faces macro headwinds ahead

President Trump’s recent stimulus plan is drawing increasing scrutiny as well. 

A few days ago, he proposed a $2,000 payout for every household below the “high-income” bracket. At the same time, U.S. deficit spending added $619 billion during the 43-day government shutdown. Because nothing says “we’re efficient” like a government that can’t even shut down properly. 🚪

Put simply, the U.S is heading deeper into a debt spiral. Analysts now expect total debt to hit $40 trillion by 2026, with the debt-to-GDP ratio already back to 124%, putting the Fed under serious pressure. Like a stressed-out barista trying to make a latte with a broken machine. ☕

And, it doesn’t stop there. 

The U.S. economy is wrestling with a data blackout, an AI-driven “bubble burst” and inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. And when you stack it all up, the crypto market’s Q4 crash looks more macro-driven than ever. Because nothing says “I’m confused” like a market that’s being pulled in 10 different directions by a group of confused economists. 🧠🌀

Read More

2025-11-21 22:21