Bitcoin Cycle Dies? Hayes Says Bull Run Might Never End – Fans React

by

Okay, so Arthur Hayes, one of BitMEX’s founders, says Bitcoin’s famous four-year price cycle is dead. Dead as last season’s socks. And the bull run could go on longer because money’s looser than a pair of sweatpants after Thanksgiving. 🤷‍♂️😂

He isn’t arguing about a clock here; it’s more like a weather report. Not “storm coming,” but “macro momentum: flip a coin, you might get a moonshot or a loan shark.” In other words, not a schedule, but a soup that’s simmering forever.

Hayes’s King Theory

In a Substack essay titled “Long Live the King!” Hayes says traders have been slapping a rigid four-year template on Bitcoin, even as the global money faucet gets turned up and down. He notes past peaks lined up with dollar- and yuan-credit tightening, not just halving dates, and says today’s conditions are different enough to break the pattern. It’s not a clock, it’s a chaos calendar. ⏱️🧨

He points to the U.S. Treasury issuing more bills and draining about $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo as a backdoor liquidity push into markets, and adds that the Fed has resumed rate cuts even though inflation’s still above target-futures are pricing in two cuts later this year. Yep, nothing says stability like guessing the future with a dart and a spreadsheet. 💸📉

On cycle-obsessed traders, Hayes says: “traders wish to apply the pattern … without understanding why it worked in the past.” The real driver, he says, is money quantity and cost in USD and yuan, not some catchy rhythm you can hum to yourself while scrolling. 🎭💰

Market Reactions: Echoes, Cautions, and Drama

Reaction is mixed. Some, like Raoul Pal, hear echoes of the old cycle and even think they could stretch out longer. Others, such as veteran trader Peter Brandt, warn that breaking the four-year rhythm could unleash dramatic price action. Because nothing says “steady” like a chart screaming in all directions. 🙃📈📉

Three Bitcoin Cycles in Review

To grasp Hayes’s thesis, we revisit the three complete cycles so far. 2009-2013 was all about aggressive credit growth from the U.S. and China reversing, which paused momentum for a spell.

2013-2017 saw much of the boom tied to China’s credit expansion rather than pure USD flows, followed by a slowdown as that credit dried up. The COVID era dumped a flood of USD liquidity into the market, which eased when the Fed tightened in late 2021, with BTC peaking in April that year.

Hayes now argues the next phase is different: while China may not be the primary engine, its pivot away from deflation could act as a floor for global credit dynamics and remove a key counterbalance to U.S. liquidity. In his view, cheaper money and greater supply could fuel further upside in Bitcoin. And yes, that’s a glass of water with a double shot of uncertainty. 🥤💥

That said, skeptics warn that recession risks, banking stress, and inflation overshoot could upend the liquidity narrative. It’s not a certainty, it’s a parlor trick with higher stakes. 🧩🤑

Read More

2025-10-09 10:20