Why Saylor’s MSTR U-Turn is the Best Thing Since Sliced Bread (or Not)

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Key Takeaways

In a shocking twist that could only be rivaled by a soap opera, critics have unleashed their fury on Saylor’s ‘sloppy’ guidance reversal. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are still optimistic about MSTR, as if they’ve just discovered the meaning of life. Will the stock hold above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)? Only time will tell, and possibly a few tea leaves.

In a move that can only be described as a U-turn of Olympic proportions, Michael Saylor has decided to flip-flop on his previous equity ATM (which, for the uninitiated, stands for “At The Market” and not “All The Moolah”). The latest guidance allows for the selling of MSTR stock to buy more Bitcoin [BTC], even if the premium decides to take a nosedive. 🎢

On the 19th of August, in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter, because why not?), Saylor proclaimed that this maneuver would help Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, because rebranding is all the rage) to drive its capital plan for BTC.

“Strategy today announced an update to its MSTR Equity ATM guidance to provide greater flexibility in executing our capital markets strategy.”

Saylor’s move sparks division

Unlike the instruction issued early in August, which was as clear as mud, the firm will now sell MSTR even if the mNAV (modified net asset value, which sounds like something a wizard would conjure) drops below 2.5x to fund BTC buys. Because who needs consistency when you can have chaos?

For those who are scratching their heads, mNAV is the premium or discount at which a stock trades against its crypto holdings. It’s a key valuation metric for crypto treasuries, or as I like to call it, “the magic number.” 🧙‍♂️

Currently, MSTR’s mNAV is trading at a rather unimpressive 1.59x, down from a dazzling 3.89x seen last November. Talk about a fall from grace!

However, the latest guidance has split market watchers like a bad magician’s trick. Critics are claiming that backtracking on the previous statement in less than a month is like trying to unring a bell-good luck with that! One Reddit user lamented,

“For me, this whole mNAV guidance stuff left a bad taste when it was released, and now even more so with the backtracking. Not a good look and does not give me any confidence as a stockholder.”

On Crypto Twitter, the sentiment was as negative as a cat in a bathtub, with one user branding the move as ‘sloppy.’ But fear not, for a pro-MSTR analyst, Jeff Walton, clapped back at the critics, stating that by October, the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) will have dissipated like a bad dream. 🌈

That said, Strategy bought another 430 BTC (worth a staggering $51.4 million), bringing its overall holdings to a jaw-dropping 629,376 BTC (worth about $74B). Because why not add more zeros to the end of your bank account?

The latest purchase wasn’t surprising since Saylor had teased about it a day before, like a magician revealing his next trick. 🎩✨

Meanwhile, MSTR has dropped over 20% from over $457 to a key support at $360 amid a BTC pullback. It’s like watching a rollercoaster ride, but without the safety harness.

But fear not! TD Cowen maintained a bullish rating with a $680 price target after the latest BTC acquisition. In fact, ten other Wall Street analysts have placed a buy rating on the stock, with a +50% upside potential. Because who doesn’t love a good gamble? 🎲

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2025-08-19 20:33