Goldman Sachs Predicts Consumers Will Take the Slapstick Tariff Bungee Jump

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In what can only be described as a plot twist straight out of the world’s most confusing soap opera, Goldman Sachs, the banking behemoth that mom always warned about, now says that your average joe, or Jane, will be stuck with roughly two-thirds of the latest tariff slapstick. Apparently, the market analysts at S&P Global are waving their flags and shouting, “Danger! Risk aversion is back, folks!” because everyone’s suddenly feeling as brave as a kitten in a room full of rocking chairs.

On CNBC (because where else would you find economic prophecy this dramatic), David Mericle – Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, which is kind of like the captain of the Titanic announcing, “We’re mostly fine, probably!” – states that consumers are about to be hit hardest because, as usual, corporations think they can just shove the bill onto your credit card, your grocery bill, or both.

“In principle, tariffs can be borne by foreign exporters, by US businesses or by US consumers. Now, we’ve had tariffs on that very first round from China for about 5 or 6 months. So I think we have learned a little something.”

This “little something” apparently includes US businesses holding the bag while the rest of us wait for our prices to catch up. According to these wise sages, it’s all about how long it takes to negotiate or pass the buck, kind of like trying to swap a lemon for a free puppy.

“Our conclusion is that US businesses have borne most of the tariff costs so far, because it takes time to negotiate lower import prices or to pass price increases along to consumers. But if the most recent tariffs, like the April tariff, follow the same pattern as the February ones, then by fall, we reckon consumers will be paying about two-thirds of the bill. Foreign exporters? About a quarter. US businesses? Less than 10%, like they’re trying to slip out early from a charge at the bar.”

Meanwhile, S&P Global chimes in with the latest Investment Manager Index survey-think of it as the financial world’s consensus on whether investing feels like a warm hug or a wedgie. This month, it’s sitting at a cozy -20%, which translates roughly to, “Yeah, things look pretty gloomy, and nobody’s smiling.”

Jingyi Pan, who’s probably got a PhD in making investor nerves dance, sums it up nicely:

“Investor sentiment has visibly weakened at the start of August, digesting the slew of tariff developments since July, including the implementation of higher tariffs for major US trading partners and the announcement of new tariffs on [semiconductors] towards the tail-end of the survey period.”

So, to sum up: Feel free to build a bunker, stockpile popcorn, and prepare for the economic rollercoaster the government forgot to warn you about. 🎢💸

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2025-08-15 15:44