Why Prediction Markets Are the New Social Clubs for the Politically Inclined! 😂

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It is with great amusement that we observe the continued vigor of Polymarket and Kalshi, two illustrious prediction markets, which have managed to sustain a remarkable level of trading activity well into the year of our Lord 2025. Indeed, the volumes, active accounts, and market offerings reflect a most spirited engagement that extends far beyond the 2024 U.S. Election.

Data Reveals Polymarket Volumes Persist Above Pre-Election Levels

Metrics from the esteemed Dune Analytics reveal that Polymarket, that most enterprising of blockchain-based prediction marketplaces, has maintained its lively activity into 2025. Monthly volumes, which soared to a staggering $2 billion during the election period, have indeed diminished, yet they remain above the levels observed prior to the electoral festivities.

Trading volume experienced a delightful uptick in the latter half of 2024, with several months boasting exchanges exceeding $2 billion. Although activity has waned since the election, recent months have still reported trades surpassing $1 billion. Daily totals generally fluctuate between $20 million and $50 million, with the occasional exuberance of days exceeding $70 million during particularly noteworthy events. One might say, it is a veritable feast for the financially inclined! 🍽️

Source: Dune Analytics

During the election between the illustrious Trump and the formidable Harris, monthly active accounts surpassed a remarkable 400,000, and have since remained in the hundreds of thousands through mid-2025. Daily active accounts typically range from 20,000 to 30,000, with delightful surges during significant deadlines or developments. The creation of new accounts peaked above 400,000 in a single month and has continued unabated since. One might wonder if there is a secret society of bettors forming! 🤔

Polymarket boasts wagers with the highest recent volumes encompassing sports, geopolitics, and event-based contracts. On the 5th of August, 2025, the markets with the largest daily volumes included “LIV Golf Chicago Winner,” “UFC Fight Night” matchups, and the ever-pressing question, “Megaquake by September 30?” Political markets remain as lively as ever, with contracts concerning a potential tête-à-tête between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, ceasefire agreements, and the ever-mysterious central bank policy decisions.

Source: Dune Analytics

Political markets are replete with contracts of significant liquidity. As of early August, the market for a Trump-Putin meeting before the 15th of August displayed an astonishing 87% probability, with nearly $1 million in trades. Other active contracts include the 2028 U.S. presidential election, the Bolivian presidential election, and the ever-pertinent question of changes to Federal Reserve leadership. It appears that the political drama is far from over! 🎭

Data indicates that activity post-election encompasses both political and non-political markets. While political events do coincide with higher volumes, one must not overlook the participation in sports, economic, and niche contracts. It seems that the public’s appetite for speculation knows no bounds!

Figures from the past year illustrate a delightful persistence of activity beyond the election cycle, with consistent daily volumes, ongoing active accounts, and a veritable cornucopia of new account creations.

Kalshi Trading Patterns Reflect Post-2024 Election Trends

Kalshi, that most American of prediction markets, has continued its operations into 2025, albeit with activity levels that differ from those of its counterpart, Polymarket. Dune Analytics figures reveal that Kalshi’s daily trade volume rose in the latter part of 2024 during the U.S. election period and has since maintained a most agreeable consistency. Daily volumes vary, with occasional larger fluctuations, including a remarkable 231% increase on the 22nd of June, 2025. One might say, it is a rollercoaster of financial excitement! 🎢

Source: Dune Analytics

In comparative volume charts, Kalshi’s highest single-day volume reached a commendable $80 million. The platform’s daily trade counts have remained steadfast. Its structure permits participation from U.S.-based users, and much like Polymarket, Kalshi’s markets encompass politics, sports, economics, and the ever-fascinating realm of popular culture.

As of August 2025, active markets include “Fed decision in September” (pricing a 76% probability for a 25-basis-point cut with nearly $150 million in traded volume), “Which party will win the House next year?” (68% probability for Democrats), and “Pro Football Champion?” along with contracts on movie review scores and the ever-intriguing outcomes of celebrity relationships. It appears that the public’s fascination with the lives of the famous knows no bounds! 🌟

Political and economic markets represent a significant portion of Kalshi’s activity. The market “Who will Trump meet with this year?” prices a 94% probability for Vladimir Putin and a 69% probability for Xi Jinping. Other contracts focus on consumer price index releases, hurricane formation timelines, and foreign elections. It seems that the world is but a stage, and we are all merely players! 🎭

Daily change data reveals fluctuations tied to news events, with both increases and decreases sometimes exceeding 20%. On several occasions, Kalshi recorded changes above 50% in daily volume. One might say, it is a veritable tempest of speculation!

Data from both Polymarket and Kalshi indicates that prediction markets remain as lively as ever beyond the major election cycles. Polymarket records higher global volumes, whilst Kalshi operates within the confines of U.S. regulations, concentrating its activity in political and economic contracts. Together, these figures reveal a delightful tapestry of activity across multiple event categories throughout the year.

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2025-08-11 18:51