In simple terms, Bitcoin has primarily stayed in place throughout the second quarter and is currently challenging a significant barrier at around $110,000 as we enter the third quarter. If it manages to break through this barrier, we could see it climbing towards $120,000, although such progress might take some time. Standard Chartered also anticipates that Bitcoin will reach $120,000 by August or September.
While temporary declines may occur, the focus right now is on the significant level of $100,000 for Bitcoin this quarter. If it maintains its position above that mark, the overall sentiment remains optimistic. However, if it slips below, there’s a potential for the price to drop to approximately $88,000, which could attract more buyers. For the moment, the market is preparing for a major shift, and any short-term drops might present opportunities to buy at reduced prices. We’ll soon find out if we’re entering an alt-season or not.
This Altcoin Season Is Different
Regarding potential developments in Q3 2025, an analyst from Selected Investments advises investors to remain vigilant. Significant economic occurrences on the horizon could influence whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies reach their final bull market peak or fail to do so.
In simpler terms, this text is saying that Bitcoin’s previous high points occurred around 525 to 546 days after the last halving event. If we apply this pattern to the next halving, which is expected in April 2024, the estimated peak would be around mid-October 2025. However, it’s important to note that past cycles don’t always predict future results. The current economic conditions, such as tighter global liquidity and higher interest rates, are significantly different from those in previous cycles, which could lead to very different outcomes.
Global Liquidity Tight, But That Could Change Soon
The analyst highlights the global M2 money supply expansion as a crucial indicator, noting that the conditions in 2025 are significantly more constricted compared to the liquidity surges experienced in 2017 and 2021. Despite interest rates hovering around 4.5%, there’s an expectation for rate reductions in the upcoming months. The likelihood of a 0.25% reduction stands at 25% in July, increasing to 71% in September and 56% in October for more substantial cuts. Such adjustments could potentially enhance market liquidity, favorably impacting risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies.
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Altcoins Still Quiet, But TVL Signals Underlying Strength
Although Bitcoin approaches its record high of $108K, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 46, suggesting minimal retail participation – a pattern that typically precedes significant spikes. The analyst suggests this understated strength could signal that the altcoin market’s peak has yet to arrive. The Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi is nearly $115 billion, not far from the $175 billion high reached in 2021, despite altcoin prices remaining relatively flat.
Ethereum’s Next Move Depends on Macro Shifts
Currently, Ethereum hovers around the $2,500 mark, encountering significant resistance. An analyst predicts that if broader market conditions enhance, there might be a breakthrough. Historically, the fourth quarter has been quite profitable, with Bitcoin typically seeing returns of 85% and Ethereum 24%. Given Bitcoin’s current influence, a substantial change could spark a robust altcoin surge.
Put simply, Q3 might serve as a tranquil prelude to turbulence, given that rate reductions and liquidity infusions seem to be aligned.
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2025-07-04 14:31