Crypto Chronicles: Bitcoin’s Dramatic Plunge Amidst Global Chaos! 😱💰

What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

In a world where the dollar is weaker than a cup of lukewarm tea, inflation is as subdued as a well-behaved cat, and the Middle East is heating up like a poorly managed barbecue, the crypto market finds itself in a rather precarious position. Bitcoin (BTC), the granddaddy of cryptocurrencies, is taking a bit of a tumble today, but fear not! Analysts are still whispering sweet nothings about a potential $200,000 price tag by year-end. 🎉

One might ponder the influence of U.S. interest rates. Consumer prices have risen less than expected, which has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut. This would, of course, be a boon for risk assets, including our beloved cryptocurrencies. With core inflation sitting pretty at 2.8%, traders are now betting on two cuts this year, starting in September, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. 🤑

And then we have the Middle East, where the U.S. has decided to evacuate its citizens faster than you can say “diplomatic crisis.” Reports suggest Israel is contemplating military action against Iran, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has ruled that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation duties for the first time in two decades. Talk about a plot twist! 📉

As tensions rise, investors are abandoning the dollar like a sinking ship in favor of safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. This has, unsurprisingly, led to a dip in cryptocurrency prices, with BTC losing 1.7% of its value in the last 24 hours, and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index retreating 2.25%. 🥴

“Bitcoin continues to trade like a classic risk-on asset, responding sharply to macro tailwinds,” Boris Alergant, head of institutional partnerships at Babylon and a former Ripple and JPMorgan executive, told CoinDesk. How very insightful, Boris! 🙄

“That said, the broader picture for BTC remains optimistic,” Alergant continued, “More institutions are emulating MicroStrategy’s BTC treasury strategy, creating a steady base of structural demand.” Well, isn’t that just delightful? 🌈

Meanwhile, the SEC has decided to play nice, greenlighting ETF applications tied to altcoins like Solana, leading to predictions of an “altcoin ETF summer.” Signals of regulatory friendliness toward staking and protocol-based yield have also helped lift DeFi tokens. It’s a veritable summer of love in the crypto world! ☀️

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, pointed to $900 million in new digital asset fund inflows this week, suggesting that investor confidence is rebounding. “This resurgence comes as bitcoin trades near all-time highs and global money supply conditions loosen, suggesting there could be further upside potential for digital asset prices more broadly,” he said. How reassuring! 😌

But let’s not get too carried away. Tame inflation could boost risk assets, yet an unexpected escalation in the Middle East could send those gains tumbling down faster than a house of cards. Stay alert, dear readers! 👀

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

SPX6900 (SPX), one of the many AI agent memecoins that sprang up in the latter half of 2024, has rocketed to a record high of $1.71 on Wednesday, defying a wider market sell-off prompted by political tensions involving Iran. Who knew memecoins could be so resilient? 😂
The project’s goal is to flip the entire U.S. stock market in terms of capitalization. While it’s a few trillion dollars away, it has amassed a $1.7 billion market cap. Ambitious, aren’t we? 💪
Crypto analyst and social media personality Murad famously racked up a $40 million unrealized loss earlier this year. That loss has now transformed into a $55 million gain due to the token’s ascent. Talk about a comeback! 🎊
SPX remains one of the few altcoins that are positive over the past 24 hours, as much of the market continues to reel over fears that fighting could escalate in the Middle East. Gold and oil prices rose significantly overnight, which is historically a sign of impending conflict. How charming! 😅
CoinMarketCap’s AI agent memecoin sector is down by 3.5%. A real rollercoaster ride! 🎢

Derivatives Positioning

Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit has reached $36.7 billion, the highest level seen this month. Quite the spectacle! 🎭
The dominant expiry remains June 27 with over $13.8 billion in notional open interest, and bullish call positioning continuing to cluster at the $140,000 strike. Fingers crossed! 🤞
The put/call ratio stands at 0.60, reflecting a moderate bias toward calls, though less so than in recent sessions. A cautious optimism, perhaps? 🤔
Ether options open interest has climbed to a yearly high of $6.87 billion on Deribit. More than $2.38 billion in notional value is tied to the June 27 expiry, with calls heavily concentrated at the $3,000 strike where $614 million is positioned. A veritable treasure trove! 💰
The put/call ratio sits at 0.45, indicating a strong preference for upside exposure into the quarter-end. How delightful! 🎉
BTC funding rates have stabilized across major venues, with Deribit at 12.84% APR, Bybit at 10.75%, and Binance at 8.12%, according to data from Velo. This supports the view that long positioning remains elevated, but not at extremes. A delicate balance! ⚖️
Aggregate futures open interest stands at $55.4 billion across Binance, Bybit, OKX, Deribit, and Hyperliquid, with Binance accounting for $23.3 billion of that total, based on Velo data. Quite the marketplace! 🏪

Market Movements

BTC is down 1.26% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,534.98 (24hrs: -1.77%). A slight dip! 📉
ETH is down 2.21% at $2,753.40 (24hrs: -0.8%). Not the best day for Ethereum! 😔
CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% at 3,198.06 (24hrs: -2.52%). A collective sigh! 😩
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05%. A minor adjustment! 🔧
BTC funding rate is at 0.0075% (8.1731% annualized) on Binance. A steady ship! 🚢

DXY is down 0.57% at 98.07. A slight retreat! 🐢
Gold futures are up 1.26% at $3,385.80. Shine on! ✨
Silver futures are down 0.54% at $36.06. A bit of a tarnish! 🥈
Nikkei 225 closed down 0.65% at 38,173.09. A dip in Japan! 🇯🇵
Hang Seng closed down 1.36% at 24,035.38. A rough day in Hong Kong! 🏮
FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,851.13. A slight wobble! 🇬🇧
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.87% at 5,346.38. A continental concern! 🌍
DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 42,865.77. A stalemate! ⚔️
S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,022.24. A minor setback! 📉
Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.50% at 19,615.88. A techy tumble! 💻
S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.37% at 26,524.16. A Canadian cheer! 🍁
S&P 40 Latin America closed up +1.42% at 2,625.01. A Latin lift! 🎉
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.39%. A slight easing! 📉
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.41% at 6,004.25. A minor dip! 📉
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% at 21,815.50. A techy retreat! 📉
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.60% at 42,649.00. A slight decline! 📉

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 64.07 (-0.08%). Holding steady! ⚖️
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02562 (0.43%). A delicate balance! ⚖️
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s. A robust network! 💪
Hashprice (spot): $54.7. A decent return! 💵
Total Fees: 4.76 BTC / $521,445. A profitable venture! 💰
CME Futures Open Interest: 150,075 BTC. A bustling market! 🏪
BTC priced in gold: 31.9 oz. Quite the comparison! ⚖️
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.04%. A worthy contender! 🥇

Technical Analysis

Solana’s sol (SOL) failed to find acceptance above the 200-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe, leading to a deviation back below key moving averages. The 100-day EMA is currently providing support. A classic case of “not today!” 😅
Notably, SOL closed below Monday’s high in the previous session, presenting a clean setup for a Monday Range strategy. If the pullback continues, Monday’s low at $149.68 serves as a key downside target. A target to watch! 🎯
This level also aligns with a weekly demand zone (order block), potentially acting as a strong support area. A safety net, perhaps? 🛡️

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $387.11 (-1.04%), -1.47% at $381.43 in pre-market. A slight dip! 📉
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $250.68 (-1.67%), -1.11% at $247.90. A rocky road! 🚧
Circle (CRCL): closed at $117.2 (+10.66%), unchanged in pre-market. A bright spot! ☀️
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.42 (-3.4%). A Canadian conundrum! 🍁
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.35 (-0.85%), -2.08% at $16.01. A minor setback! 📉
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.55 (+0.96%), -1.42% at $10.40. A mixed bag! 🎭
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.25 (-4.07%), -1.22% at $12.10. A rough patch! 🌧️
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.97 (-1.58%), -1.6% at $9.81. A slight decline! 📉
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20 (-1.38%). A minor dip! 📉
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.72 (+0.7%), -0.69% at $31.50. A small victory! 🏆
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.08 (-7.91%), +1.38% at $31.51. A rollercoaster ride! 🎢

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flow: $164.6 million. A healthy influx! 💵
Cumulative net flows: $45.20 billion. Quite the sum! 💰
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.21 million. A hefty stash! 💎

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $240.3 million. A significant boost! 🚀
Cumulative net flows: $3.76 billion. A solid foundation! 🏗️
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.84 million. A substantial amount! 💎

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart from TheTie shows bitcoin generally moved in the same direction as the U.S. equity market as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. A curious correlation! 🔗
The cryptocurrency is nevertheless more volatile than the equity benchmark. A wild ride! 🎢
Bitcoin briefly decoupled around April as it sold off while equities were relatively steady. A moment of divergence! 🌌