Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Is It the Next Trump Rally or Just a Crypto Mirage?

by

Key takeaways:

  • The Bitcoin Quantile Model is heating up, and no, it’s not just the summer sun. It’s on the brink of an “acceleration phase,” reminiscent of that glorious Q4 2024 when BTC decided to throw a 45% post-election party. 🎉

Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a daily high streak this week, like a kid who just discovered sugar. It’s inching closer to a new all-time high, and 21st Capital co-founder Sina is practically holding his breath at the $108,000 mark. Can you feel the tension? 😬

The latest Bitcoin Quantile Model update reveals that BTC’s market is radiating the same “heat” as it did after President Trump’s post-election rally. It’s like déjà vu, but with more digital coins and fewer tweets. The model, which sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie, uses quantile regression to map Bitcoin’s price phases on a logarithmic scale. Right now, it’s in the Transition Zone, which is just a fancy way of saying it’s waiting for the Acceleration Phase to kick in. Remember Q4 2024? Bitcoin soared by 45% after hitting a price discovery period above $74,500. Talk about a glow-up! 💰

According to the chart, once Bitcoin breaks into the “Acceleration” Phase, it could launch BTC’s next leg, typically between the 33% and 66% range. If the model is to be believed, BTC is eyeing price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months. But let’s be real, it’s Bitcoin; it could also decide to take a nap. 😴

Meanwhile, our anonymous Bitcoin analyst, who I can only assume is a superhero in disguise, believes a price target above $200,000 is “reasonable” for 2025. This projection is based on Bitcoin’s “power curve,” which sounds like something you’d find in a comic book. Apparently, BTC’s standing against gold has improved since April. Who knew Bitcoin was so competitive? 🥇

From a technical standpoint, this view is backed by the recent convergence of the Sharpe ratios for Bitcoin and gold. Yes, you heard that right—two hard assets now offer comparable risk-to-reward profiles. It’s like comparing apples to oranges, but both are deliciously risky. 🍏🍊

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, has weighed in, suggesting a 4:1 goal-to-Bitcoin ratio from an allocation perspective. Because who doesn’t love a good ratio? 📊

Strong Bitcoin volumes: The “final straw” before new highs

Crypto researcher Aylo has taken a deep dive into BTC’s historical price action, analyzing when the crypto asset consolidates near its all-time high. In an X post, the analyst explained,

“The data shows when BTC gets close to its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum, it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).”

However, weaker trends have led to stalls or retraces between March and May 2024. Currently, Bitcoin is flexing its muscles with a strong trend but is lacking the necessary trading volume. It’s like a bodybuilder who forgot to eat his protein. This volume is the final straw to confirm a breakout, and without it, upward movement might be delayed. 🏋️‍♂️

Alyo added that for Bitcoin to break its all-time highs, daily trading volume should exceed the previous 10 days, be at least 1.5 times the 20-day average, and ideally sustain a 3-day increase while the price holds steady or rises. No pressure, right? 😅

Data from CryptoQuant has reinforced Aylo’s concerns about trading volume. On May 21, retail investor demand for Bitcoin, defined as wallets buying/selling between $0 and $10,000, remained low at just 3.2% over 30 days. This is despite BTC trading within $2,000 of its all-time high. It’s like being at a party and realizing no one wants to dance. 💃

For comparison, bullish retail demand accounted for approximately 30% in December 2024—nearly 10 times higher than current levels—even though Bitcoin was well below, at a price range of $96,000 to $97,000. It’s a classic case of “what have you done for me lately?”

Read More

2025-05-21 18:58